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UFC 278 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Paulo Costa vs. Luke Rockhold (2022)

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The UFC will hit the road to Salt Lake City, UT, this week for the city’s first-ever PPV event, as the pound-for-pound best fighter on the planet, Kamaru Usman, is slated to take on challenger Leon Edwards. Before we get to the main event, our co-main event of the evening features a middleweight bout between a company legend in Luke Rockhold, making his return to the octagon against a top 10 fighter in Paulo Costa.

While there are plenty of great fights on this UFC 278 card, let’s take a closer look at how this one might play out.

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Betting Profile: Paulo Costa (13-2-0)

Last Five Fights (L-L-W-W-W)

Joining the UFC in 2017, Costa entered the promotion with a record of 9-0, rattling off five straight wins with the UFC before his first title shot in September 2020. Losing to current middleweight champion Israel Adesanya via KO/TKO, Costa got in the octagon a year later only to face another killer and title challenger Marvin Vettori, in a unanimous decision loss.

Coming into this fight, Costa holds the edges in striking and lands 33% more significant strikes per minute at 6.85, with an 11% higher accuracy clip.

Betting Profile: Luke Rockhold (16-5-0)

Last Five Fights (L-L-W-L-W)

It’s been over three years since we last saw Rockhold inside of the octagon, as the former UFC and Strikeforce champion has noted burnout as the reason we haven’t seen him since a 2nd round TKO loss to Jan Blachowciz in July 2019.  The last few years of his career inside the octagon hadn’t been the best either, as Rockhold lost three of his last four with the UFC.

Albeit outdated numbers, Rockhold does hold an advantage here on the ground, with a submission average of 1.12 per 15 minutes inside of the octagon. In fights that have gone by way of submission, Rockhold is a perfect 8-0.

Bottom Line

While Costa would be a worthy challenger for any opponent, it’s going to be especially difficult for Rockhold after an extended layoff such as this one. Though it’s not available yet, I’ll be looking to play Paulo Costa inside the distance bets here as well.

Best Bet: Paulo Costa (-280 via DraftKings)

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