UFC 278 Usman vs. Edwards: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
UFC 278 will take place in Salt Lake City, Utah, on Saturday, August 20, 2022. The card will feature a much-anticipated welterweight title fight between Kamaru “The Nigerian Nightmare†Usman and Leon “Rocky†Edwards. The card also features a middleweight bout between Luke Rockhold and Paulo Costa and an exciting bantamweight matchup between José Aldo and Merab Dvalishvili. The champ, Usman, will face a familiar foe in his toughest challenge yet.
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Leg 1: Alexander Romanov moneyline (-360)
Undefeated Alexander Romanov will take on Marcin Tybura in a three-round heavyweight bout. Romanov has 16 wins and five wins in the UFC. Three of those victories were via submission, which he sets up with his wrestling (6.46 takedowns landed per 15 minutes). He is also a defensive fighter when standing. He lands 4.23 significant strikes per minute but only absorbs 1.35 significant strikes per minute. His opponent, on the other hand, has a ratio of 3.64 to 3.44 of significant strikes landed to absorbed. He typically eats a punch to land one, and that typically presents a recipe for disaster when fighting someone with Romanov’s power. Tybura has never been submitted in his career (22-7 record), so Romanov may not look to grapple with him unless Tybura (1.54 takedowns landed per 15 minutes) initiates the exchange. Romanov should be able to touch him with some power shots and get the finish.
Leg 2: Tyson Pedro moneyline (-740)
Tyson Pedro will have a four-inch reach advantage (79-inch reach) over Harry Hunsucker (75-inch reach) in the only light heavyweight bout on the card. Hunsucker is making his UFC light heavyweight debut after two consecutive losses in the heavyweight division. He was knocked out twice last year by Tai Tuivasa and Justin Tafa, both in the first round. He absorbs 6.70 significant strikes per minute while landing 3.83. Pedro lands at a smaller clip (2.89 significant strikes per minute) but also absorbs fewer strikes (2.36 significant strikes absorbed per minute).
Hunsucker will likely look to make this fight an ugly one since Pedro is the more technical fighter. Pedro will also have the speed advantage. Hunsucker (0 takedown attempts in the UFC) is used to getting in brawls with heavyweights, so he may throw some wild shots. Expect Pedro to counter with enough accuracy and power to finish the fight.
Leg 3: Kamaru Usman moneyline (-380)
The welterweight title fight is a rematch between Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards. Usman won the first matchup in 2015 by unanimous decision. He secured six takedowns and almost 11 minutes of control time in the 15-minute fight. Of course, both fighters have improved considerably since the first bout. Edwards has become a better wrestler, and Usman has improved his striking ability. Edwards carries a nine-fight win streak in his last ten fights with one no contest. He has not lost since Usman beat him.
Usman (76 in reach) will perhaps face his toughest challenge yet in Leon Edwards. Edwards (74-inch reach) is likely the more technical fighter when striking, but Usman will have the power advantage. Usman will undoubtedly be the better wrestler, but Edwards has improved his wrestling dramatically. Edwards took Nate Diaz down four times in his last fight and took Rafael Dos Anjos down three times in 2019. Usman, however, is a different beast. He will be tested while standing, but Usman (3.00 average takedowns landed per 15 minutes) will find a way to get Edwards to the mat. Once he gets him there, he will be able to wear on him and take away some of the speed advantages that Edwards has. Usman should be able to use his wrestling enough to secure a decision victory and retain his belt.
Parlay: -120 on DraftKings
This is a safe parlay, so wager enough to win one unit. Of course, lines are subject to change, but these are the best available odds currently.
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