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UFC 279 Best Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

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Let’s take a look at our best bets for Saturday’s loaded UFC 279 card.

UFC 279 Best Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz

With the average total rounds between these two sitting at 1.7, this number appears about right on the surface. But these aren’t your average (or even median) fighters stepping into the octagon late on Saturday.

For one, Diaz has less than zero to lose with this one, and I expect we see him respond accordingly in an aggressive game plan right from the start. For Chimaev, anything less than an early finish will put his increasing legend into question.

Look for this one to end very early.

Best Bet: Under 1.5 Rounds (-125 via DraftKings)

Ion Cutelaba vs. Johnny Walker

Be prepared for a potentially boring fight. Could there be fireworks? Of course, especially considering the power both these guys possess in the light heavyweight division.

That being said, I expect a repeat of the Krylov/Walker fight. Cutelaba should have no problem getting Walker to the mat, and once there, he could just control him and try to rack up points for 15 straight minutes.

Both these guys need a win, so Cutelaba absolutely does not care whether he gets it done in spectacular fashion or if he just controls Walker without executing much damage.

Prediction: Ion Cutelaba to Win via Unanimous Decision

Best Bet: Ion Cutelaba to Win via Decision (+500)

Irene Aldana vs. Macy Chiasson

This women's bantamweight bout is shaping up to be a classic striker vs. wrestler contest. Can Chiasson break through Aldana's 84% takedown defense? And if she does, can she coast her way to victory off of ground control and what will likely be another deficit in the striking department? In my opinion, I don't see that happening. Aldana looked very sharp last time she was in the cage and put on an impressive display of power against the former fifth-ranked Kunitskaya. She left her bloody and dazed, which is pretty rare to come across in women's fights nowadays. 

Ultimately, Aldana's takedown defense is enough to neutralize Chiasson, and if these two are vertical for 15 minutes, we're going to see a clear advantage for the higher-ranked Aldana. She's fast, powerful, and has her eyes set on a run at the bantamweight strap. Let's roll with the favorite in this main card contest. 

Pick: Irene Aldana Moneyline (-152 via FanDuel)

Li Jingliang vs. Tony Ferguson

With this fight likely to be “stand and bang”, we should not expect to see the final bell. Oddsmakers concur with this sentiment with the “fight does not go to decision” prop listed at -175.

If we are getting a knockout, I expect It to be from Jingliang. Ferguson just is not what he used to be, and moving up a weight class is, to me at least, a desperation move considering how his last four fights went.

Jingliang has dynamite in his hands, and we could see Ferguson finished early for the third time in his last five fights. That is a crazy sentence to write given his historic career and iron chin, but father time is undefeated.

Prediction: Li Jingliang to Win via Knockout in Rd 2

Best Bet: Li Jingliang to Win via KO/TKO/DQ (+110)

Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez

While Kevin Holland and Daniel Rodriguez don't necessarily pop off the card as huge names in the sport, this fight has the potential to be very exciting, in my opinion. Two great strikers who will likely throw their grappling games to the side and go toe-to-toe on the feet. 

D-Rod's giving up seven inches in reach to Holland (81" to 74"), but what he lacks in reach and height (2" to Holland), he makes up in strength and putting weight behind his shots. His path to victory seems like it'll come by narrowing the distance and relying on his usual heavy output. I think Rodriguez has the power to knock Holland out, but it's worth mentioning that the latter has never seen the back of his eyelids while fighting in the UFC. Ultimately, I think Rodriguez's pace and striking volume will show up on the scorecards and lead to him getting his hand raised. I'm going to take a shot with the underdog in this catchweight bout. 

Pick: Rodriguez Moneyline (+170 via BetRivers)

Chad Anheliger vs. Heili Alateng

In the early prelims, we have a bantamweight bout between Chad Anheliger and Heili Alateng. A Dana White Conteder Series alum, Anheliger will look to grab his third straight in under the UFC umbrella.

In fact, Anheliger is riding a professional 10-fight win streak, a trend I expect to continue in this scrap. His power was on full display in his latest win over Jesse Strader, knocking him down with a vicious left-hand and landing 20ish straight shots in a brilliant display of ground and pound.

Half of Anheliger’s wins during this streak have come via knockout, something we could see happen once again against Heili Alateng. Of Alateng’s eight professional losses, four have been inside the distance.

This matchup should stay on the fight as both guys prefer to strike. Given that, Anheliger should carry an advantage as he throws at a much higher volume with much more accuracy.

At 13/2, Anheliger is certainly worthy of a shot to knock out Alateng.

Pick: Chad Anheliger to Win via KO/TKO/DQ (+650)

Norma Dumont (7-2-0) vs. Danyelle Wolf (1-0-0)

With just one professional fight to her name, Danyelle Wolf will make a giant leap on Saturday as she takes on the No. 15 ranked women’s featherweight Norma Dumont. In Dumont, Wolf is drawing a fighter whose only loss since late 2020 was a split decision loss to Macy Chiasson in May, a fight she was in control of for stretches before the defeat.

While Wolf is a relative unknown in the MMA world, she is a former boxer who comes into the UFC via Dana White’s Contender Series in September 2020. Though I expect her to hold her own, I think Dumont dominates the later rounds and gets this one done.

Bet: Norma Dumont Wins by Decision (-105)

Darian Weeks vs. Yohan Lainesse

We are also looking another fight in the early prelims: Darian Weeks vs Yohan Lainesse. This welterweight bout should start the night off strong as these are two very capable fighters.

Weeks opened up as a -135 favorite and has since been bet slightly down to -125. Despite this line movement, I still like Weeks to take care of business on Saturday.

The likely reason for this line movement is Weeks’ 0-2 start in the UFC. However, he was immediately fed to the wolves as his first loss was to Bryan Barberena and his second was to highly touted prospect Ian Garry.

Both of those fights went the distance as Weeks is not afraid to mix in some grappling with his striking. We saw this in his loss to Barberena when he took him down four times and in his loss to Garry, who he took down once.

Meanwhile, Lainesse is 1-1 since he made his debut on Dana White’s Contender Series. While neither of those fights went the distance, he has not faced someone who will be looking for takedowns yet.

We are buying low on Weeks, and I think this step down in competition is exactly what he needs to grab a dominating win.

Pick: Darian Weeks to Win via Unanimous Decision (+400)

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