UFC 279 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Ion Cutelaba vs. Johnny Walker (2022)

UFC 279 is set to get underway this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features plenty of big names, including Li Jingliang, Tony Ferguson, and Kevin Holland.

Capping off the night is a welterweight bout between Khamzat Chimaev and Nate Diaz, an event in which we will see a likely future champion and the last scrap of Diaz’s career under the UFC umbrella.

Kicking off the main event, we have a light heavyweight scrap between Ion Cutelaba and Johnny Walker. Cutelaba opened as a -195 betting favorite and has since stayed at that number.

While the ticket count is roughly 50/50, 87% of the handle is on Cutelaba. Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this welterweight fight.

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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Betting Profile: Ion Cutelaba (16-7-1 Overall / 5-6-1 UFC)

Last Five Fights (L-L-D-W-L)

Currently unranked in the light heavyweight division, Ion Cutelaba’s UFC journey has not lived up to his expectations. However, his losses are worth dissecting because his record does not tell the whole story.

The guys he has lost to are some of the best fighters in the world, including Jared Cannonier (current #2 ranked middleweight), Glover Teixeira (current #1 ranked light heavyweight), Magomed Anakalaev twice (#3), and Ryan Spann (#12). Even his draw was against a ranked opponent, Dustin Jacoby (#14).

That is an absolutely loaded list of names, which makes Cutelaba’s “losing record” more deceptive than It really is. In fact, Cutelaba is 5-2-1 when priced as the betting favorite (0-4 as an underdog).

Cutelaba throws everything at you as he is comfortable in every situation, though this is a fight where he surely will try to bring It to the mat. Relentless in his takedown game, Cutelaba boasts a takedown average of 4.75 per 15 minutes.

This aspect of his game has been on full display lately, with three takedowns in his loss to Spann, eight takedowns in his win over Devin Clark, and nine takedowns in his draw with Jacoby. His plan is takedown and then ground and pound, as he has yet to land a submission in the UFC.

Betting Profile: Johnny Walker (18-7 Overall / 5-4 UFC)

Last Five Fights (L-L-W-L-L)

Currently ranked #13 in the light heavyweight division, the Dana White Contender Series (Brazil) alum looks to turn things around after losing four of his last five fights. The problem for Walker is that this is not a great fight for him in terms of style.

Walker likes to “stand and bang”, and does not like fighting on the mat. However, he sometimes does not get a say in this as his takedown defense is only 62%.

This could be a big problem against Cutelaba, who has been a takedown machine. I expect this fight to go exactly like Walker’s scrap against Nikita Krylov.

In that scrap, Krylov landed three of eight takedowns, dominating the wrestling as he amassed 11:20 of control time, which is a remarkable figure in a 15-minute bout. Walker could not do anything once he went to the mat, and that will likely be the case against Cutelaba as well.

Walker is certainly a character and has proven to be entertaining both in and out of the octagon, but that entertainment overshadows the fact that he is just not a very sound mixed martial artist. Does he have some power? Absolutely, and he could knock Cutelaba out.

However, if this fight gets to the mat, he is in a world of trouble.

Bottom Line

Be prepared for a potentially boring fight. Could there be fireworks? Of course, especially considering the power both these guys possess in the light heavyweight division.

That being said, I expect a repeat of the Krylov/Walker fight. Cutelaba should have no problem getting Walker to the mat, and once there, he could just control him and try to rack up points for 15 straight minutes.

Both these guys need a win, so Cutelaba absolutely does not care whether he gets it done in spectacular fashion or if he just controls Walker without executing much damage.

Prediction: Ion Cutelaba to Win via Unanimous Decision

Best Bet: Ion Cutelaba to Win via Decision (+500)

Best of luck!

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