UFC 279 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Li Jingliang vs. Tony Ferguson (2022)

UFC 279 is set to get underway this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features plenty of big names, including Li Jingliang, Tony Ferguson, and Kevin Holland.

Capping off the night is a welterweight bout between Khamzat Chimaev and Nate Diaz, an event in which we will see a likely future champion and the last scrap of Diaz’s career under the UFC umbrella.

Prior to the main event, we have a welterweight scrap between Li Jingliang and Tony Ferguson. Jingliang opened as a -250 betting favorite and has since been bet up to -305, despite about 50/50 action.

Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this welterweight fight.

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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Betting Profile: Li Jingliang (19-7 Overall / 11-5 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-L-W-L-W)

Currently ranked #14 in the welterweight division, Li Jingliang looks to grab a statement win over veteran and fan-favorite Tony Ferguson. Opening as a large favorite, Jingliang’s betting line has only gotten longer despite the 50/50 action coming in.

These splits make sense, given Ferguson’s popularity and name-recognition bias. However, these two fighters are trending in different directions at this point in their respective careers.

While Jingliang is 5-2 over his last seven fights, those two losses were to Khamzat Chimaev and Neil Magny. Chimaev is a future champion and on pace to potentially be one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world, while Magny is a proven veteran who is always a difficult out in the octagon.

The one aspect of Jingliang’s game that is problematic is his takedown defense and work when on the mat. This fact is evidenced in both of the two losses mentioned above, which were the main reasons why he lost each fight.

However, this should be thrown out of the window when facing Tony Ferguson, who has not landed a takedown in over seven years. This fight should be standing the entire time, and I believe that benefits Jingliang at this point in their respective careers.

Jingliang’s striking has been elite since entering the UFC, highlighted by his outstanding power. Over his last 10 victories, eight have come via knockout.

As a favorite of -200 or higher, Jingliang is 5-1 in the UFC, with that one loss occurring seven years ago.

Betting Profile: Tony Ferguson (26-7 Overall / 15-5 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-L-L-L-L)

Currently ranked #11 in the lightweight division, Tony Ferguson may, unfortunately, be on his way out following a tremendous career. Moving up a division is an understandable decision given the talent pool of the lightweights, however, It is a dangerous one given the increase in power he is going to face.

Losing four straight fights, he has not been the same since Justin Gaethje was the first person to knock him out in 2020. He has lost every contest since then, including his last scrap against Michael Chandler which ended in a devastating knockout where Ferguson was unconscious before even hitting the mat.

Now, to be fair, those four losses were to Chandler, Dariush, Oliveira, and Gaethje, four fighters who are all outstanding and better than Jingliang. However, the move up a weight class may just be too much for a guy who has been finished twice over his last four fights, especially against a guy with Jingliang’s power.

Through all the media appearances this week, a lot of Ferguson’s focus seems to be away from Jingliang and on exogenous factors, including, but not limited to, Khabib, retirement, what is next for him, etc. I am not so sure his focus is 100% on his opponent, which is very dangerous water to be in considering Jingliang’s capabilities inside the octagon.

Jingliang only opened at -250 because books knew the action would be on Ferguson, but this mispriced line has quickly eradicated and he is now a worthy -305 favorite.

Bottom Line

With this fight likely to be “stand and bang”, we should not expect to see the final bell. Oddsmakers concur with this sentiment with the “fight does not go to decision” prop listed at -175.

If we are getting a knockout, I expect It to be from Jingliang. Ferguson just is not what he used to be, and moving up a weight class is, to me at least, a desperation move considering how his last four fights went.

Jingliang has dynamite in his hands, and we could see Ferguson finished early for the third time in his last five fights. That is a crazy sentence to write given his historic career and iron chin, but father time is undefeated.

Prediction: Li Jingliang to Win via Knockout in Rd 2

Best Bet: Li Jingliang to Win via KO/TKO/DQ (+110)

Best of luck!

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