UFC 279 Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions: Chimaev vs. Diaz (2022)
The UFC will head over to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas to put on a pay-per-view card featuring two of the most exciting names in the sport. There will not be a shortage of drama this week as the Thursday press conference was canceled by Dana White because of a conflict that took place between Khamzat Chimaev’s team and Kevin Holland’s team. Chimaev is arguably the UFC’s biggest rising star and Nate Diaz is a fan favorite with a granite chin.
Leg 1: Johnny Walker vs. Ion Cutelaba does not go to decision (-450)
This bout will take place at light heavyweight between two of the most aggressive fighters on the roster. Only four of Ion Cutelaba’s career fights have gone to the judge’s scorecards. Johnny Walker has only gone to the judges three times in his career. About 17% of Cutelaba’s fights and 12% of Walker’s fights have gone the distance. Cutelaba (4.81 takedowns averaged per 15 minutes) is more likely to shoot a takedown in this matchup and will likely secure it given Walker’s 62% takedown defense. Both men can submit one another even though Cutelaba has never won by submission in the UFC, so this fight will likely stay on the feet. Someone’s chin is getting touched and the main card will be started with a bang.
Leg 2: Kevin Holland moneyline (-190)
Kevin Holland and Daniel Rodriguez will fight in a catchweight bout contested at 180 pounds. This fight was added on short notice and is an entertaining scrap. Holland is used to fighting on short notice and remains one of the most active fighters on the roster. He has fought and won twice already this year. He fought three times in 2021, five times in 2020, and three times in 2019. Rodriguez, on the other hand, fought three times in 2021 and has not fought this year. Holland has had more time in the cage and will have a seven-inch advantage in reach. This matchup should take place standing and Holland’s length will be his biggest asset. Rodriguez lands 8.06 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.38. He will have trouble landing that kind of volume in this matchup. Holland lands 3.90 strikes per minute and absorbs 2.41 per minute. Once he finds his range, expect him to start landing punches at will while Rodriguez tries to work his way inside.
Leg 3: Khamzat Chimaev moneyline (-1250)
Khamzat “Borz†Chimaev has made waves since entering the UFC in 2020. He beat Gilbert Burns via unanimous decision in his previous fight in April of this year. He is an extremely skilled wrestler (3.23 takedowns averaged per 15 minutes) and is not afraid to mix it up on the feet. He lands 7.89 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.30 per minute. Nate Diaz has landed 4.51 strikes per minute and absorbed 3.73 strikes per minute over his storied UFC career.
Diaz is fighting the last fight on his current contract and has publicly said that this is not the fight that he wanted. Diaz is not one to say no to a fight, so here he is. This is a nightmare matchup for him. “Borz†averages 3.23 takedowns per 15 minutes and Diaz only stuffs 41% of takedowns. Diaz has good jiu-jitsu off his back, which explains the low percentage, but once Chimaev gets him down, he is not going to let him back up. The only chance Nate has in this fight is if he draws it out the full five rounds. Chimaev showed in his last fight, that he does get tired, but he also did not stop being offensive because of it. Diaz will have to land a huge strike, late in the fight, and that is not likely to happen.
Parlay: +101 on DraftKings
This is a safe parlay so wager enough to win one unit. Of course, lines are subject to change but these are the best available odds currently. The early prelims will start at 6 pm EDT and the main event will start at 10 pm EDT on pay-per-view.
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