UFC 280 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Aljamain Sterling vs. T.J. Dillashaw (2022)

by Tony Sartori |
Oct 20, 2022

UFC 280 will get underway this Saturday at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Perhaps this biggest card of this year, we have two title fights and multiple scraps between top contenders.

The first title fight is in the bantamweight division as Aljamain Sterling looks to defend the belt against the No. 2 ranked challenger, T.J. Dillashaw. Sterling opened up as a -155 favorite before being bet up to -175, despite 52% of the tickets and 59% of the handle on the challenger.

Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this bantamweight title fight. The play below is one unit or 1% of your betting bankroll.

Follow me on Twitter to get all my plays on days without full write-ups.

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Aljamain Sterling (21-3 Overall / 13-3 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)

Aljamain Sterling looks to defend the belt for a second time after beating Petr Yan in their rematch in April. Currently riding a seven-fight win streak, Sterling has established himself as the No. 7 pound-for-pound fighter on the planet.

Sterling is a tremendously balanced fighter, although his grappling is what sets him apart from the other elite fighters in the division. Across his seven-fight win streak, Sterling has two wins via submission, four wins via decision and one win via DQ.

Even in the wins by decision, his grappling secured him the victory, most notably in his title defense against Yan. Since making his professional debut, seven of his 21 wins have come via submission.

A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Matt Serra and former NCAA D3 wrestler, Sterling has relied heavily on his grappling ability to propel him into superstar status. As a betting favorite in his career, Sterling is 9-1, with that one loss occurring over six years ago.

Betting Profile: T.J. Dillashaw (18-4 Overall / 13-4 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-L-W-W-W)

Making just his second appearance in the UFC since coming back from a two-year suspension, T.J. Dillashaw is getting a crack at the title once again. After he lost the belt to Henry Cejudo in 2019, he got popped for PEDs and was put on a forced hiatus until 2021.

In his first fight back, he defeated Cory Sandhagen via a very controversial split decision. Most people would agree that Sandhagen won that fight, except for the judges of course.

Despite this unconvincing victory following a two-year suspension for cheating the sport, the powers that be deem him worthy of a title shot. That said, he is likely only in this spot because no other contender is currently available for this scrap.

Sterling has already beaten Yan twice and Sandhagen once. Merab Dvalishvili and Marlon Vera just fought in August, and Rob Font just lost to Vera. Dillashaw gets a shot to reclaim the title with no other matchup making sense.

Like Sterling, Dillashaw is a strong mixed martial artist who can beat you on the feet and the mat, although he will likely want this one standing.

Bottom Line

We will likely get a clash of styles in this scrap and see five full rounds of true mixed martial arts. Sterling will shoot more, while Dillashaw will defend the takedown and try to keep the fight standing.

I am optimistic that this clash of styles will result in a mixed fight that sees a little bit of everything and likely sees the final bell. Dillashaw has never tapped in his career and boasts a 86% takedown defense.

We should still expect Sterling to get him to the mat, although it will take some time and patience. With the clash of styles dragging out the fight, there is value in taking the favorite here by decision.

Prediction & Best Bet: Aljamain Sterling to Win via Decision (+120)

Best of luck!

Prop Bet Analyzer: View advanced analysis and bet ratings for every prop bet >>

Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced sports betting strategy - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.

Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.

Navigate