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UFC 280 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Beneil Dariush vs. Mateusz Gamrot (2022)

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The epic card that is UFC 280 is finally upon us, with the action getting started as early as 10:00 AM EST with the fight being held in Abu Dhabi. With 14 fights in total, this card offers a ton of value from top to bottom, as well as four fights that could be the main event any other week.

Because of the two title fights at the top, there’s a terrific top 10 lightweight fight getting overshadowed as #6 Beneil Dariush takes on #9 Mateusz Gamrot. With both fighters coming in on 4+ fight win streaks, let’s take a closer look at both and where the value remains as fight night approaches on Yas Island.

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Beneil Dariush (21-4-1)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)

Joining the UFC in 2014, Dariush has already had a long career in the UFC but has really hit his stride starting in 2019. Coming into this fight on a seven-fight win streak, Dariush has finished four of those fights inside of the distance.

Against Gamrot, Dariush holds the striking advantage in both knockdowns and significant strikes landed per 15 minutes and submissions per 15 minutes. He also holds a large experience edge, with 4x more fights under the UFC banner than his opponent.

Betting Profile: Mateusz Gamrot (20-1-0)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-L)

Gamrot’s first professional loss came in his UFC debut in October 2020, a split decision loss to Guram Kutaleadze. Since then, however, the former KSW lightweight champion has made up for it in spades, winning his four fights since then, three of which came before the second round bell.

Coming into this fight, Gamrot holds slight advantages in takedown defense and accuracy, as well as significant striking accuracy. He also holds the advantage of being the much more active fighter, fighting three times since Dariush fought last.

Bottom Line

While I was very much inclined to take the more experienced underdog in this fight, the ring rust factor keeps me away from him. Not being inside of a live octagon for over 500 days typically spells trouble for fighters, and I think that’s why (in part) we have seen all the early money come in on Gamrot.

Though I don’t think his wind will be the issue, I think Gamrot’s timing will be a challenge for Dariush, and that Gamrot can grind out a decision win over the course of three rounds.

Best Bet: Mateusz Gamrot (-190 via DraftKings)

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