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UFC 280 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Petr Yan vs. Sean O’Malley (2022)

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UFC 280 will get underway this Saturday at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Perhaps this biggest card of this year, we have two title fights and multiple scraps between top contenders.

Before the two title fights, we have a bantamweight scrap between the number one contender Petr Yan and number 11 contender Sean O’Malley. Yan opened up as a -410 betting favorite and has since been bet down to -265 as 60% of the tickets and 83% of the handle are on O’Malley.

Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this bantamweight fight. The play below is one unit or 1% of your betting bankroll.

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(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Petr Yan (16-3 Overall / 8-2 UFC)

Last Five Fights (L-W-L-W-W)

After four straight title fights, Yan returns to the ranks again to take on other contenders. His only two losses since joining the UFC have both been to the current champion, Aljamain Sterling.

The first of those losses was via DQ as Yan drove his knee right into Sterling’s skull when he was grounded, which was the easiest DQ in a title fight I have ever seen. The second time around, Sterling dominated him on the mat on his way to a semi-controversial split-decision victory.

An elite striker, Yan may be forced to go to his ground game in this fight as he surrenders four inches in height and five inches in reach to O’Malley. Yan averages 1.48 takedowns per 15 minutes in his UFC career at 61% accuracy.

While those numbers are fine, he has really never won BECAUSE of his grappling. In the first Sterling fight, he took him down seven times and likely was on his way to winning, but we will never know because of that illegal knee.

Across his eight wins, he has routinely won because of his striking, except for his fight against Douglas Silva de Andrade. Yan’s path to victory is likely there through shooting for takedowns, and it may be dangerous for him to attempt to get inside O’Malley’s wheelhouse because of his immense knockout power.

Betting Profile: Sean O’Malley (15-1 Overall with 1 NC / 8-1 UFC with 1 NC)

Last Five Fights (NC-W-W-W-L)

A fan favorite in the sport, the “Suga Show” claims he is 17-0. While he obviously does not possess that record, there is a slight validation of what he is saying.

The NC came against Pedro Munhoz after an inadvertent eye poke. While it is unfair to say who would end up winning that fight, O’Malley was checking all of Munhoz’s leg kicks and starting to find his range right before the incident.

In his lone loss to Marlon Vera, O’Malley rolled his ankle due to a poor tape job, which caused a non-contact injury in the fight and allowed Vera to pounce and finish him. Again, it is unfair to say who would have won this fight, and O’Malley claiming he is “17-0” is more of a meme than anything else.

However, it does illuminate the fact that no one has straight-up “beaten” him in his career yet. This fight against Yan is by far the biggest challenge for O’Malley, who just signed an extension with the UFC.

Dana White confirmed this week that the winner of this fight gets a shot at the winner of Sterling/Dillashaw for the bantamweight title. A thunderous striker who stays standing in his fights, O’Malley utilizes his height and long reach to keep opponents at a distance while he looks for a kill shot.

Throwing at an immensely high volume, O’Malley lands 7.75 strikes per minute at 62% accuracy. Six of his eight wins in the UFC have come via knockout.

Bottom Line

Yan is certainly a more polished fighter and a stronger mixed martial artist. However, O’Malley’s time is now.

Earning a potential shot at the title from the #11 contender spot just one fight prior is typically unheard of. However, his knockout power and dominating wins have torpedoed him into the title conversation. His height and reach should be a massive problem for Yan, who will be forced to shoot for takedowns and abandon a striking game that has made his career what it is.

I see this fight playing out where O’Malley feints, Yan shoots for a takedown, and O’Malley catches him with a knockout punch.

Prediction & Best Bet: Sean O’Malley to Win via KO/TKO/DQ (+550)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.

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