UFC 280 Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions: Oliveira vs. Makhachev (2022)

Arguably the biggest card of the year will occur in Abu Dhabi between Charles Oliveira and Islam Makhachev. This card will start at 10:30 a.m. EDT, and the main card will begin at 2:00 p.m. EDT. It is an abnormal start time for such a high-level card, but since they are in Abu Dhabi, it will be earlier. This card is stacked from head to toe and features some excellent bouts early in the prelims. It should be an exciting card and certainly not one to miss.

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Leg 1: Petr Yan money line (-275)

Sean O'Malley is undoubtedly a tough matchup for Yan, but Yan is the number-one ranked bantamweight in the UFC. O'Malley is making a big jump in skill level as his last fight was a no-contest against the number eight-ranked bantamweight, Pedro Munhoz. O'Malley has a reach advantage of five inches, which he will have to use if he wants a chance to win this fight. He will have to pick Yan apart from range using his kicks and jab. Yan's boxing will show itself in this fight. He lands an average of 5.45 strikes per minute with 53% accuracy and is better when fighting inside a phone booth. He may also seek a takedown since he averages 1.48 takedowns per 15 minutes. O'Malley's takedown defense is only 64%, so Yan should be able to land them. The only problem is that O'Malley is four inches taller than Yan, so he may have trouble shooting traditional takedowns. If this fight was five rounds, Yan wins easily, but since it is only three, Yan needs to step on the gas after he makes his reads in round one.

Leg 2: Aljamain Sterling money line (-175)

Sterling is exceptional at taking opponents' backs and sinking in a rear naked choke. While T.J. Dillashaw has never g choked, he has also not faced an opponent like Sterling in a long time. His last fight was a narrow decision win against Cory Sandhagen in July 2021, so he has had over a year since his last fight. Before that, his previous fight was when he lost the Flyweight title fight to Henry Cejudo in 2019.

Sterling, on the other hand, has been more active in the cage. He did take some time after getting illegally kneed in the face by Petr Yan in their first fight, but that is understandable. In the rematch, he looked better than ever and should look similar in this fight. Sterling will have a four-inch reach advantage and is be the better grappler. He will likely have a hard time getting Dillashaw to the mat (86% takedown defense), but if he finds himself there, he is good at sprawling and ending up in a better position. Sterling should have a lot of movement while standing while peppering Dillashaw with shots the entire fight. Look for Sterling to get the submission victory after taking the back.

Leg 3: Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev does not go to decision (-450)

The main event and the best fight on the card should be a highly entertaining bout. Oliveira and Makhachev are both dominant on the mat but in their own ways. Oliveira will happily fall to his back to lure his opponent into playing the jiu-jitsu game with him. He is the UFC's all-time leader in submission victories and averages 2.9 submissions per 15 minutes. Makhachev's style is that of most Daghestani wrestlers, smother and control. He fights much like his coach and training partner, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and gets compared to Khabib based on how he fights. He is a better striker than Khabib, averaging 2.27 strikes landed per minute while only absorbing .84 strikes per minute. This fight, however, will take place on the mat in some fashion. Whether it starts standing and goes to the mat via a knockdown like Oliveira's recent fights or Makhachev takes him down, it will find the mat. Once there, Makhachev will control easily, or Oliveira will throw up submission attempts and make himself vulnerable to Makhachev's heavy ground pressure. Whoever wins, the bout should end before it gets to the judges.

Parlay: +161 on DraftKings Sportsbook

DraftKings is the best place to play this parlay, and betting enough to win one unit is the best way to attack it. The main event starts at 2 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.

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