UFC 282 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Longshot Bets (2022)
UFC 282 will get underway this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. This card features a deep lineup with many great fights set to take place.
Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this event. These plays are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll.
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- Alex Morono vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
- Darren Till vs. Dricus Du Plessis
- Bryce Mitchell vs. Ilia Topuria
- Jan Blachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
TJ Brown vs. Erik Silva
We have a featherweight bout between TJ Brown and Erik Silva in the early preliminary card. Both of these guys are veterans of Dana White’s Contender Series and will look to begin the night with a big win.
Brown is just 3-3 in the UFC but has had some tough matchups, including his win over Charles Rosa and most recent loss to Shayilan Nuerdanbieke. Meanwhile, this scrap will be Silva’s first since his dominant DWCS victory over Anvar Boynazarov.
In that fight, Silva landed one takedown right away and punished Boynazarov on the mat, ending the fight in under two minutes with some strong ground and pound. Both of these guys prefer to fight on the mat, where this fight is likely to occur.
I think experience on the mat will win out in this contest. Brown’s relentless submission attempts were on display against Nuerdanbieke, Rosa, and Kamaka.
Even if Silva dictates the pace early on, I could see Brown utilizing his strong counter ability to catch a more inexperienced Silva in a vulnerable position. Silva was submitted before joining the UFC, while Brown won via arm triangle in his DWCS fight.
Silva has not been tested, given his lay-up against Boynazarov in DWCS, and Brown’s experience on the mat could give him problems as the fight progresses.
Pick: TJ Brown via Submission (+420)
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Jay Perrin
To close out the preliminary card, the featured bout is a bantamweight scrap between 18-year-old blue-chip prospect Raul Rosas Jr. and Jay Perrin. Rosas Jr. enters this fight as the youngest fighter in UFC history with a 6-0 professional record.
Four of those six victories were via a first-round finish, with three coming via submission and one via knockout. Rosas is a huge up-and-comer in the industry that the UFC wants to build up, which is why they are throwing him a bone in his first bout against Jay Perrin.
This scrap could be one of Perrin’s last in the UFC, considering he is 0-3 in this promotion and just 10-6 overall. The switch-stance fighter has been unimpressive in the UFC, landing strikes at an accuracy south of 50% while absorbing more strikes per minute than he has landed.
And if Perrin tries to go the mat against Rosas, well, good luck. Look for a quick and dominating performance in Rosas’ debut.
Pick: Raul Rosas Jr. in Round 1 (+340)
Best of luck!
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