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UFC 282 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Bryce Mitchell vs. Ilia Topuria (2022)

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After finishing both October and November at +70% (+29.5 units) with our free UFC predictions, we came somewhat back down to earth, breaking even at UFC Orlando to start the month of December. Now, our attention turns to the final PPV of the year, as UFC 282 has a ton of value from top to bottom, as I see it.

At the top, a light heavyweight fight is on deck between two killers in, Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev, as the vacant title fight will be on the line. Before we get there, however, a featherweight bout between two rising fighters in, Bryce Mitchell and Ilia Topuria, gets the main card started.

Let’s take a closer look at how this one might unfold.

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Bryce Mitchell (15-1-0)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)

Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell has won five straight fights after transitioning to the UFC from The Ultimate Fighter in 2019, with all but one coming by unanimous decision. Along the way, Mitch has picked up impressive wins over the likes of Charles Rosa, Andre Fili, and Edson Barboza.

However, I believe that run is over in Las Vegas on Saturday night.

Despite Mitchell’s remarkable run, he has little to no striking experience, which might be a significant issue when he faces Topuria, whose skills have constantly developed. Topuria also brings a ground game that Mitchell hasn’t seen before and a perfect takedown defense to this battle.

Betting Profile: Ilia Topuria (12-0-0)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)

Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt Topuria began his professional MMA career with seven straight submission wins, including six in the opening round. Since then, Topuria has won four out of his last five matches by way of KO or TKO, including his last four in the UFC.

Most recently, Topuria picked up a win over Jai Herbert in March, his second in 12 months and the one that put him on the map for this opportunity.

Bottom Line

Topuria has more opportunities to win than his opponent in this fight, and I believe we see that play out. Conversely, while Mitchell, a fan favorite, is receiving too much respect in the markets, he’s thus far been fairly one-dimensional.

In a fight where I have Topuria closer to -200, I love the value I’m currently getting at less than -150. In a fight I could see playing out to a decision, my money is on “El Matador” to get this one done.

Best Bet: Ilia Topuria (-140 via DraftKings)

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