UFC 283: Gilbert Burns vs. Neil Magny Betting Guide (2023)

by Tony Sartori |
Jan 19, 2023

UFC 283 will get under this Saturday at the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This card features a deep lineup with two title fights set to take place.

Prior to the two championship bouts, there is a welterweight bout between Gilbert Burns and Neil Magny. Burns opened up as a -345 favorite before he was bet up all the way to the current price of -475.

Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this welterweight fight. The play below is one unit or 1% of your betting bankroll.

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Betting Profile: Gilbert Burns (20-5 Overall / 13-5 UFC)

Last Five Fights (L-W-L-W-W)

There is a chip on the shoulders of the current number five contender of the welterweight division. Voicing his frustration this week of how Belal Muhammad jumped him in the rankings, Gilbert Burns has a lot to prove to the executives of the UFC after losing two of his last three fights.

However, those two losses came against Kamaru Usman in a title fight and Khamzat Chimaev. Those are two of the best pound-for-pound fighters on the planet, and Burns has won each of his last seven fights outside of those two guys.

A third degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Burns is elite both on the mat and in the striking department. With a high fight IQ, five of his last seven wins have come on the scorecards.

Betting Profile: Neil Magny (27-10 Overall / 20-8 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-L-W-W-L)

Currently the number 12 contender in the welterweight division, Neil Magny looks to make a massive jump in the rankings with an upset victory over Burns. However, Magnyâ€™s recent resume is not quite as impressive as Burnsâ€™.

The loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov is not a bad one whatsoever, as Rakhmonov could very well hold the belt in the not-too-distant future. That being said, Magny has only one victory over a current ranked opponent (Geoff Neal â€“ #7) over his last five wins.

A smart fighter who can also mix his striking with his grappling, Magny is typically involved in slower-paced fights as he has seen the scorecards in six of his last eight scraps. Without a ton of power, Magnyâ€™s gameplan will likely be to out-strike Burns over the distance or perhaps pull off a reversal submission when his opponent ultimately brings this fight to the mat.

Bottom Line

There is going to be a lot of give-and-take in this scrap, with stretches on the mat along with some great striking exchanges on the feet. Given the fact that Magny boasts a four-inch height advantage and nine-inch reach advantage, Burns will almost certainly attempt to bring this fight to the mat.

After surviving until the final bell against Chimaev, the grappling in this fight should feel much easier by comparison for Burns. As he did in his wins over Stephen Thompson and Tyron Woodley, Burns will likely utilize his strong grappling to rack up points and grab a victory on the scorecards.

Since Magny can keep Burns at distance with his reach advantage, it might take a bit for Burns to find his rhythm in the grappling department, which is good for those betting on this fight to make it to the final bell. Fighting in front of his hometown with a chip on his shoulder, look for Burns to overpower Magny with his wrestling and grab a decision victory.

Best Bet: Gilbert Burns via Decision (+165)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.

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