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UFC 283 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions

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It's an absolute banger of a card this weekend as the UFC makes its way to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil for another numbered event. UFC 283 features #2 Glover Teixeira squaring off against #7 Jamahal Hill for the Light Heavyweight title. The co-main event sees the fourth installment of the Flyweight saga between (C) Deiveson Figueiredo and (IC) Brandon Moreno.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Top 3 Prop Bets for UFC 283

There are plenty of ways to bet this weekend's event, including taking it to the prop sheet! Here are my top three prop bets for UFC 283.

Gilbert Burns (-460) vs. Neil Magny (+370)

Gilbert Burns was in the building the last time that the UFC held an event in his home country. Despite collecting a knockout win over Demian Maia, he wasn't able to celebrate with his fellow countrymen as the building was empty. Yep, the Fight Night event in Brasilia, Brazil was on March 14th, 2020 - the first crowd-less event that the UFC held during COVID. 

I expect Burns will have plenty to celebrate on Saturday night, and I don't think it will require the full 15-minute workload. I'm taking the Brazilian to finish Neil Magny inside the distance. Burns is currently the fifth-ranked contender in the Welterweight division, and in my opinion, he is the best #5 in any division. His wrestling is top tier and he packs a powerful punch. I think he rebounds from the Khamzat Chimaev defeat in a big way and dominates Magny. 

Bet: Gilbert Burns to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+100 via DraftKings)

Deiveson Figueiredo (+100) vs. Brandon Moreno (-120)

Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno will meet for the fourth time on Saturday night, and I think I speak for all fight fans in saying no one is tired of watching these two battle it out in the octagon. The first three installments have been electric, and I don't see why this one will be any different. 

Two of the first three fights have gone to the judges' scorecards and I'm going to ride that trend. Let's take this Flyweight title bout to last the full 25 minutes. There was massive output from both fighters in the initial majority draw fight back in December 2020, with a combined 269 strikes landing. However, the striking output dropped off substantially over the subsequent fights. 

In my mind, that translates to Figueiredo and Moreno looking to be more patient and respecting their opponent's skills. The Brazilian has some heavy hands for a flyweight, but Moreno has an excellent chin and he's proven he can roll with the punches in these big fights. He's never been knocked out in the UFC. Ultimately, I see this fight going the distance. 

Bet: Fight to go the Distance (-135 via DraftKings)

Glover Teixeira (+110) vs. Jamahal Hill (-130)

Nobody expects this Light Heavyweight title fight to go the distance, including the oddsmakers, who have it listed at -650 for the fight to end before 25 minutes. So the question becomes, how quickly will it end? 

Well, I think we'll reach at least the third round before Teixeira or Hill finish one another. Hill will be looking for the knockout early, as he's 4-1 over his last five fights and all have ended via knockout. However, he'll have a tough task this time around, as Glover Teixeira has only been knocked out twice in the last 21 years, most recently in 2016.

Teixeira has a massive edge in grappling, and if he can survive the early onslaught from Hill while adding some ground control time, the clock will melt away. To be frank, I don't see the Brazilian veteran getting caught and going to sleep. And assuming Hill gets taken down, if he's able to display any submission defense through two rounds, then we should find ourselves reaching at least the halfway point of the 25-minute clock. From there, it'll be a test of whose cardio is better. 

Bet: Fight to Start Round 3 (+120 via DraftKings)


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