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UFC 284: Justin Tafa vs. Parker Porter Picks & Predictions (2023)

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It's a stacked card this weekend as the UFC heads down under for another numbered event. UFC 284 is set to take place from the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, where Featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski will look to become a double champ in the Lightweight division. He'll take on (C) Islam Makhachev, who makes his first title defense at 155 Lbs.

Prior to the main event, we have a banger in the Heavyweight division featuring Justin Tafa taking on Parker Porter. Let's dive into this main card bout and get a best bet locked in!

Check out our other UFC 284 betting picks:

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Best UFC 284 Tafa vs. Porter Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Betting Profile: Justin Tafa (5-3-0)

Last Five Fights (WLLWL)

Justin Tafa makes the walk for the first time since December 2021, marking his sixth fight in the UFC. The New Zealand native came out victorious the last time he stepped into the cage, knocking out Harry Hunsucker at the 1:53 mark of the first round. Each fighter landed five significant strikes, but the 265-pound Tafa's final strike was a nasty left head kick that put Hunsucker to sleep. Previously, Tafa had dropped two straight decisions, a split decision loss to Carlos Felipe in January 2021 and a unanimous decision to Jared Vanderaa four months later.

The 29-year-old is averaging 5.02 significant strikes per minute and landing at a 55% success rate. However, he's absorbing 5.94 significant strikes per minute, which is never a good sign when you're taking more shots than you're dealing. As for Tafa's grappling game, it's essentially nonexistent as he's averaging no takedowns per 15 minutes. It's worth noting that he's a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and boasts a 100% takedown defense rate.

Betting Profile: Parker Porter (13-7-0)

Last Five Fights (LWWWL)

Parker Porter was shut out when he took on Jailton Almeida as a +435 underdog in May 2021. Yep, he was outstruck 18-0 before being submitted (rear-naked choke) by the Brazilian with 25 seconds left in the first round. That snapped a three-fight win streak for Porter, who notched consecutive unanimous decision victories over Alan Baudot, Chase Sherman, and Josh Parisian.

From a statistical standpoint, Porter's high-volume striking is typically a strength. He's averaging 6.49 significant strikes per minute at a 49% clip while absorbing an inflated 6.32 strikes per minute. The American is a brown belt in BJJ and enjoys implementing those skills. Porter lands 1.45 takedowns per 15 minutes courtesy of a 28% success rate.

Bottom Line

This is the tightest fight on the main card in terms of odds offered by the sportsbooks. DraftKings is offering Tafa at -125, while Porter comes back at +105.

The New Zealander is 0-2 in fights that've gone to the judges' scorecards, while Porter is 3-0 in the same scenario. Hence, I expect we'll see a sense of urgency from Tafa as he'll likely look to put this fight away early.

With that being said, I'm going to lay the juice and lock in the under for 2.5 rounds in this Heavyweight bout. Apparently, neither fighter enjoys working on striking defense, as they're each absorbing north of 5.75 significant strikes per minute. You have to think that someone's going to sleep in this one, and I say that it'll come before the 12.5-minute mark. 15 of Porter's 19 professional fights have ended before the final horn, while six of Tafa's eight have had the same fate. Let's ride with the under.

Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-150 via DraftKings)

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