UFC 284 Makhachev vs. Volkanovski: Saturday’s Best Bets & Picks (2/11)
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski will get underway Saturday at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. This card features a deep lineup with two title fights set to take place. Let’s take a look at our UFC 284 betting guide, including our top bets and picks for Saturday’s action.
Get ready for the big game with our Super Bowl LVII Betting Guide >>
Saturday’s Best UFC 284 Bets & Picks
Here are our top picks for all the prime fights of UFC 284.
Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski
The oddsmakers don’t see this being much of a fight, considering they have Makhachev listed as a -380 favorite. Volkanovski comes back at +310 to get his hand raised. In my opinion, this fight is way tighter in terms of skill level. But I have to wonder, what is Volkanovski’s route to victory here? Typically, it seems he’s content with riding it out five rounds and taking it to the judges’ scorecards while occasionally mixing in a knockout here and there. However, he’ll be tasked with defending one of the more dominant wrestlers and submission artists for 25 minutes on Saturday night.
Volk’s grappling skills have obviously held up throughout his career, but I think Makhachev is on another level in terms of his ground game. He’s rag-dolled the whole division en route to capturing the belt.
Personally, I’m a big fan of Volkanovski and wanted to craft an argument for him to become the double champ, but I’m hesitant to say he’ll be able to defend against Makhachev’s insane grappling for a full 25 minutes. I think the Russian will land several takedowns throughout the fight before ultimately locking in a submission. I’m rolling with Islam Makhachev to defend his Lightweight title and do it via submission.
Pick: Islam Makhachev To Win By Submission (+165 via DraftKings)
Check out our full betting guide and picks for Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski >>
Yair Rodriguez vs. Josh Emmett
We should expect these two guys to stay in the stand-up for the vast majority of this interim title fight. Both guys are much more comfortable in the striking department than they are in the grappling, and with the nerves of this scrap being the biggest fight of each of their respective careers, we should expect them each to stick to what they are best at.
With these two guys staying in the stand-up, the edge is with Rodriguez as he boasts a five-inch height and one-inch reach advantage. On top of that, he is a more accurate striker while throwing in larger volume, which is good if this fight goes to the scorecards.
Speaking of which, the judges may be needed at the conclusion of this scrap. Through 20 professional fights, Emmett has only been finished inside the distance once.
On the flip side, Rodriguez has a strong chin, which was on full display in his five-round loss to Max Holloway, a fight in which Holloway landed 230 (!!) significant strikes. Rodriguez is the better striker, and with how good each of these guys’ two chins are, his most likely route to victory is on the scorecards.
Best Bet: Yair Rodriguez via Decision (+150 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Check out our full betting guide and picks for Yair Rodriguez vs. Josh Emmett >>
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Randy Brown
On paper, a stand-up fight should benefit Brown. He boasts a four-inch height and five-inch reach advantage.
However, Maddalena’s clinical and powerful striking should overcome that. The UFC gave Maddalena this fight in front of his home crowd for a reason, and he will put on a show.
Brown’s chin is susceptible to early endings, evidenced by the fact that each of his last two losses were via knockout. On the flip side, 11 of Maddalena’s 13 professional wins are via knockout.
Maddalena looks primed to rise the ladder of the welterweight division after three straight first-round knockouts, a result that is likely to occur once again against Brown, a guy who is talented in his own right but typically does not get the job done against bigger names.
Best Bet: Jack Della Maddalena via KO/TKO/DQ (-125 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Check out our full betting guide and picks for Jack Della Maddalena vs. Randy Brown >>
Justin Tafa vs. Parker Porter
This is the tightest fight on the main card in terms of odds offered by the sportsbooks. DraftKings is offering Tafa at -125, while Porter comes back at +105.
The New Zealander is 0-2 in fights that’ve gone to the judges’ scorecards, while Porter is 3-0 in the same scenario. Hence, I expect we’ll see a sense of urgency from Tafa as he’ll likely look to put this fight away early.
With that being said, I’m going to lay the juice and lock in the under for 2.5 rounds in this Heavyweight bout. Apparently, neither fighter enjoys working on striking defense, as they’re each absorbing north of 5.75 significant strikes per minute. You have to think that someone’s going to sleep in this one, and I say that it’ll come before the 12.5-minute mark. 15 of Porter’s 19 professional fights have ended before the final horn, while six of Tafa’s eight have had the same fate. Let’s ride with the under.
Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-150 via DraftKings)
Check out our full betting guide and picks for Justin Tafa vs. Parker Porter >>
Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield
Over 16 combined fights in the UFC, these two average fights of just 1.08 rounds per attempt. Furthermore, of their combined 25 wins, 84% have finished inside the distance, with Menifield himself as high as 92% coming into this fight.
While I give Crute the slight edge, given his age and technical ability, I think the best bet here is this one ending early.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 (-220 via DraftKings)
Check out our full betting guide and picks for Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield >>
UFC 284 Prop Bet Odds, Picks
Top-10 lightweights have avoided Islam Makhachev for years for a reason – the Khabib Nurmagomedov-disciple has almost no weaknesses in his approach to the game. Islam just defeated one of the best grapplers (Charles Oliveira) in the world by dominating him at his own game, winning a never-close fight in the second round. Islam also picked up five straight ITD victories on his road to a title opportunity.
He may have defeated Oliveira on a terrible night for the former champ, but he had just defeated Bobby Green in the first round and had previously clobbered Dan Hooker, Thiago Moises and Drew Dober. His metrics aren’t simply impressive; they’re top-notch.
Although little is spoken about his striking, Islam entered Saturday as the best lightweight ever in terms of takedown accuracy (66.7%), significant strikes absorbed per minute (.9) and striking accuracy (60.2%). He also ranks in the top five among active competitors in control-time percentage (52.7%), submission wins (6) and top position percentage (46.3%).
Islam rolls here, despite what the odds movement indicates
Bet: Makahchev to Win – Inside the Distance (-120)
Check out all of our UFC 284 prop bet picks >>
UFC 284 Prelims Preview
Shane Young (-125) vs. Blake Bilder (+120)
The Bonfims, Rosas Jr., Marcos, Rebecki, and Pyfer are just a few of the recent DWCS fighters that have already made a name for themselves in the UFC, and I believe Bilder will follow in their footsteps. As is the case with all fighters making their UFC debuts, Bilder’s official statistics are meaningless because they are based on a round one (submission) victory over Alex Morgan in DWCS in August.
Young, who debuted in the UFC in 2017 against Volkanovski, has a mere 2-3 record with the organization, with both of his victories coming over opponents who, at the time, had a combined record of 25-14. He’s very much in danger of losing his third consecutive bout because Bilder is a fighter with his kryptonite, the ground game, and his UFC future is probably on the line.
I believe that Bilder, a future star for the UFC, will give Young his final UFC loss in this fight.
Bet: Blake Bilder (+120 via DraftKings)
Check out our full preview of UFC 284 prelim fights >>
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts