Navigate

UFC 285 Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane: Picks & Predictions (2023)

by |

UFC 285 gets underway this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features an incredibly deep lineup with two epic title fights set to take place.

In the main event, the vacant heavyweight title is on the line as Jon Jones makes his long-awaited return to the octagon to take on Ciryl Gane. Jones opened up as a +130 underdog before the line was completely flipped and bet up to his current price of -155.

Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this heavyweight title fight. The play below is three units or 3% of your betting bankroll.

Best UFC 285 Jones vs. Gane Bet

Follow me on Twitter to get all my plays on days without full write-ups.

Betting Profile: Jon Jones (26-1 Overall  / 20-1 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-NC)

Fighting for the first time since February of 2020, Jon Jones returns to the octagon in an attempt to restore his pound-for-pound number one ranking and championship status. Although, in a twist, Jones returns to fight in the heavyweight division for the first time in his UFC career.

While most fans and bettors alike were shocked that Jones opened up as a betting underdog, oddsmakers were most likely using the rationale that this is his first fight after a three-year layoff in a division he has not fought in against the number one contender. That is a valid thought process for 99% of fighters on the planet, but Jones is in the other 1%.

Not only is Jones leaps and bounds ahead of Gane in terms of MMA experience and technical skill, but he is, quite frankly, probably the GOAT in terms of pure talent, something that is overshadowed due to his numerous controversies both in and out of the octagon. They say history so often repeats itself, and a long layoff for the best-of-the-best in a new division is something we have seen before.

After a nearly four-year layoff, the hall-of-famer Georges St-Pierre returned to the octagon at middleweight for the first time and immediately captured the title with a third-round submission over Michael Bisping. While a long layoff in a new division would typically be problematic for the majority of fighters, guys like GSP and Jones are in a different class.

Betting Profile: Ciryl Gane (11-1 Overall / 8-1 UFC)

Last Five Fights: (W-L-W-W-W)

Certainly no slouch in the heavyweight division, Ciryl Gane has amassed a nearly perfect 11-1 professional record. His lone loss came in the heavyweight title fight against the highly-accomplished Francis Ngannou.

An incredibly technical striker, Gane has landed 5.11 strikes per minute at an impressive 59% accuracy. He also possesses some solid knockout power, with three of his last five wins coming via KO/TKO.

However, Gane’s full utilization of MMA is where his potential may be limited. Yes, he started off his UFC career with two straight submission victories, but those were against the likes of Raphael Pessoa (who only lasted in the UFC for three fights) and Don’Tale Mayes (who is just 4-4 since joining the UFC).

When facing higher-level competition, Gane’s game slowly dwindles down to just his striking, which could be detrimental against someone who can beat you by virtually any method like the well-rounded Jones.

Bottom Line

Simply put, these two guys are on two very different levels, regardless of Jones’ three-year layoff. Gane’s most likely path to victory is catching Jones and winning via KO/TKO, although Jones has an iron chin and has never been stopped inside the cage.

On the flip side, Jones could win this fight by any method. He could utilize his grappling advantage and take Gane to the ground, beating him with wrestling or even submit him.

Jones could also utilize his three-inch reach advantage to keep Gane at distance and pick his moments, which could lead to a Jones KO/TKO victory or a decision victory. There are just numerous more paths for Jones to win this fight, where, on the other hand, Gane’s chance in this scrap likely hinges on being the first one in history to knock out Jones.

Everything else that has occurred in his career (in and out of the octagon) aside, Jones will remind everyone why he is still the GOAT of MMA.

Best Bet: Jon Jones ML (-155 via DraftKings) – 3u

Best of luck!

Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced sports betting strategies - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App