Navigate

UFC 285 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Longshot Bets (2023)

by |

UFC 285 gets underway this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features an incredibly deep lineup with two epic title fights set to take place.

Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this event. These plays are 0.5 units each, or 0.5% of your betting bankroll.

UFC 285 Best Longshot Bets

Follow me on Twitter to get all my plays on days without full write-ups.

Jessica Penne vs. Tabatha Ricci

In the third fight of the event, there is a strawweight bout between Jessica Penne and Tabatha Ricci. A seasoned veteran in the UFC, Penne started off her journey under this promotion in tremendous form.

Winning four of her first five fights, Penne earned a title shot against Joanna Jedrzejczyk in 2015. However, that bout started a full reversal of her fortune in the UFC.

Including that loss, Penne is just 2-4 over her last six fights, with neither of those two wins coming against good opponents. Preferring to stay on the feet in this matchup, Penne boasts a six-inch reach and four-inch height advantage over Ricci.

With that in mind, Ricci will likely look to bring this fight to the mat. Ricci was a takedown machine in her latest fight, landing five on 10 attempts while amassing a whopping 9:31 of control time en route to her victory over Polyana Viana.

Penne only possesses a 40% takedown defense since joining the UFC, which is going to be problematic against Ricci. Once the fight lands on the mat, then a submission victory is always in the cards, which is the direction to take in this bout.

Pick: Tabatha Ricci via Submission (+525 via BetRivers)

Julian Marquez vs. Marc-Andre Barriault

Later on the preliminary card, there is a middleweight bout between Julian Marquez and Marc-Andre Barriault. This scrap will most likely take place on the feet, with both guys preferring to stand-and-bang.

While Marquez has an arsenal of submissions in his bag, he typically only relies on his grappling when other people take him down or if he lands a knockdown. Otherwise, he prefers to stand like Barriault.

In terms of reach, Barriault boasts a two-inch advantage. Not only is he longer, but Barriault is the more technically-sound striker.

Through his UFC journey thus far, Barriault has landed 5.35 strikes per minute at 46% accuracy. On the flip side, Marquez has landed 4.18 strikes per minute at 43% accuracy.

Defensively, Barriault also boasts the advantage with his 54% striking defense compared to Marquez’s 51%. Marquez got absolutely buried on the feet his last time out, getting knocked down three times before losing via knockout in the first round to Gregory Rodrigues.

While Barriault is coming off a loss himself, it was due to Anthony Hernandez’s non-stop wrestling and grappling, a game plan that Marquez will most likely not utilize. If this fight does indeed stay on the feet, then Barriault should be able to get Marquez out of there before the final bell.

Pick: Marc-Andre Barriault via KO/TKO/DQ (+235 via BetRivers)

Best of luck!

Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced sports betting strategies - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App