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UFC 285 Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso: Bets & Picks (2023)

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The UFC makes its return to the Fight Capital of the World this weekend as Jon Jones squares off against Ciryl Gane for the Heavyweight Championship. It's a stacked card from top to bottom, featuring two title fights and four additional ranked bouts.

Just prior to the main event, Valentina Shevchenko will make her eighth title defense, this time taking on the sixth-ranked contender, Alexa Grasso. Let's dive into this Women's Flyweight Title Bout and get the best bet locked in.

UFC 285: Best Bet for Shevchenko vs. Grasso

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Betting Profile: Valentina Shevchenko (23-3-0)

Last Five Fights (WWWWW)

While it wasn't the easiest of her seven title defenses, Valentina Shevchenko retained her championship belt last summer, fending off Taila Santos in a split decision. It was a back-and-forth thriller, with each fighter landing a trio of takedowns. Santos made three submission attempts, while the champ made one. But ultimately, the 77-55 edge in striking led to Shevchenko getting her hand raised. It was her ninth straight victory, making her 12-2 in the UFC.

"Bullet" Shevchenko has relied on her grappling skills and elusive defense to remain atop the division. She's one of the most decorated fighters in the sport, boasting Master of Sports rankings in Taekwondo, Muay Thai, Boxing, Kickboxing, and Judo. Statistically, she's dishing out 3.19 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 1.90 strikes. In the takedown department, Shevchenko is landing 2.53 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 64% clip while defending 70% of opposing attempts.

Betting Profile: Alexa Grasso (15-3-0)

Last Five Fights (WWWWL)

Alexa Grasso makes the UFC walk for the 11th time on Saturday night. She's riding a four-fight win streak, most recently taking care of Viviane Araujo in a unanimous-decision affair in October. It was a high-volume brawl, with Grasso outstriking her opponent 153-126 over five rounds of action. Previously, Grasso notched wins over Ji Yeon Kim (U-DEC), Maycee Barber (U-DEC), and Joanne Wood (Rear Naked Choke), most recently.

The rear naked choke victory against Wood was a bit of an anomaly, marking Grasso's first submission win in her 18-fight professional career. However, it's worth noting that the Mexican-born brawler does have a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. She's averaging 0.44 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 57% clip while shutting down 64% of opposing attempts. The striking is where Grasso makes her money, dishing out 5.14 significant strikes per minute and landing at a 44% success rate.

Bottom Line

Despite Alexa Grasso gaining steam and coming into the prime of her career, the oddsmakers still see her as a +575 underdog to knock off the champ. Valentina Shevchenko comes back at -800 to successfully defend her title for the eighth time.

I have to agree with the oddsmakers here and say this is a very favorable matchup for Shevchenko. What worries me most about Grasso is her takedown defense. She conceded a pair of takedowns last time she was in the octagon and is defending a pedestrian 64% of opposing attempts.

I expect Shevchenko, who's averaging 2.53 takedowns per 15 minutes, to lean heavily on her grappling experience in this one. I don't anticipate much resistance from Grasso, and once the champ gets her to the ground, it's only a matter of time before she gets the finish. I'll go ahead and lock in Shevchenko to finish this fight within 25 minutes.

Pick: Valentina Shevchenko to Win by Any Knockout, Submission, or DQ (-150 via DraftKings)

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