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UFC 286: Best Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)

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The UFC heads across the pond this weekend to the O2 Arena in London, United Kingdom. UFC 286 is a stacked card from top to bottom, including four ranked bouts. But, all roads lead to the conclusion of the trilogy between first-time defending champion Leon Edwards and former champion Kamaru Usman.

There is no shortage of ways to bet Saturday’s card, but I’ve narrowed in on these three prop bets for UFC 286. 

Today’s Best UFC 286 Prop Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Marvin Vettori (-255) vs. Roman Dolidze (+215) 

The UFC 286 main card opens up with a middleweight tilt between fourth-ranked Marvin Vettori and ninth-ranked Roman Dolidze. Vettori still fancies himself a contender despite dropping two of his last three fights. He’ll have to prove himself here against a streaking Dolidze, who has won four straight contests in the promotion. 

I’d have to agree with the oddsmakers that Vettori should be a sizable favorite heading into Saturday’s opener. There’s one area where I feel the Italian-born fighter holds an edge over Dolidze, and that’s the wrestling department. Vettori is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu who averages 1.89 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands at a 44% clip. Dolidze, on the other hand, owns a takedown defense rate of just 33%. 

Look for Vettori to lean on his wrestling here and go to work with submission attempts. He’s no stranger to winning fights via submission, seeing nine of his 18 professional wins coming by an opponent’s tap. I think Vettori gets it done by either points (-150) or submission (+650), but I’m going to take a chance with the larger payout with the latter.

Bet: Marvin Vettori to Win by Submission (+650)

Justin Gaethje (+195) vs. Rafael Fiziev (-230) 

The co-main event features a highly-anticipated bout between third-ranked Justin Gaethje and sixth-ranked Rafael Fiziev. Gaethje returns to the octagon for the first time since being submitted in the first round against Charles Oliviera last May. As for Fiziev, he’s posted six straight wins in the UFC, with half of them coming by knockout. 

I’ll take the Azerbaijan-born brawler to come away with a win by knockout once again. He’s won two straight fights via the KO, most recently Rafael Dos Anjos and Brad Riddell prior. Fiziev is a rising star and he may put the Lightweight Division on notice with another notable win. 

As for Gaethje, he’s an absolute savage who averages 7.46 significant strikes per minute. However, he’s also absorbing an inflated 7.85 strikes per minute. In my opinion, that leaves the aging American exposed to the potential of getting caught clean by the heavy hands of Rafael Fiziev. Let’s take a shot with the plus-money payout with Fiziev to win by knockout.

Bet: Rafael Fiziev to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (+150)

Leon Edwards (+200) vs. Kamaru Usman (-240) 

Leon Edwards shocked the world when he landed an insane head kick on Kamaru Usman last August, ending a fight he was trailing in with just 56 seconds remaining. Usman, a sizable favorite, now gets a chance at redemption for a Welterweight belt he had successfully defended five times before the defeat. 

I expect Usman to go back to the well here and rely on his fantastic wrestling abilities. In the August affair with Edwards, the former champ landed five takedowns compared to his one. It’s still clear to me that The Nigerian Nightmare holds an advantage in the grappling department, so I would assume he tries to make this a wrestling match where he can’t get caught like last time.

Ultimately, I think this fight makes it to the judges’ scorecards and we should see Usman get his hand raised. However, I’ll play it safe and lay the juice with it just to go to a decision. The head kick loss last time was the first time Usman has left the cage early in a loss in the UFC while Edwards has never been tapped or knocked out in 23 professional fights. Sit back and enjoy a 25-minute battle in the main event. 

Bet: Fight to Go the Distance (-175)

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