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UFC 286 Jennifer Maia vs. Casey O’Neill: Odds & Picks (2023)

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At the top of a packed London UFC 286 event, Leon Edwards will attempt to defend his welterweight belt against Kamaru Usman in the third fight of their highly anticipated trilogy.

The Jamaican-born Birmingham resident, who won his title with a fifth-round head kick that shocked the whole MMA world, welcomes the “Nigerian Nightmare” to London for the third and likely final time. The unexpected loss paved the way for a PPV event in the UK, which hadn’t happened since Michael Bisping defended his middleweight title in Manchester in 2016.

Before we get there, however, the main card is filled with great fights in the build-up to the co-main and main events. One of those fights is a flyweight bout featuring the return of Casey O’Neill against a grizzled veteran in Jennifer Maia. In what is a value-packed UFC 286 card, let’s take a closer look at both of these fighters and who I like to win this one.

UFC 286: Jennifer Maia vs. Casey O'Neill

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Betting Profile: Jennifer Maia (20-9-1)

Last Five Fights (W-L-L-W-L)

As for Maia, a 34-year-old journeywoman in her own right and a veteran of the UFC, she enters this bout with a record of 2-3 since 2020, losing two of her past three fights while being outmatched. Despite the fact that she is coming off a victory, she hasn’t had a string of victories since entering the UFC in 2019.

Betting Profile: Casey O'Neill (9-0-0)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)

O’Neill, who enters the fight at a bargain after missing more than a year due to an ACL rupture, strikes me as a fighter who offers value in this situation despite the layoff. ot all ACL injuries are the same, and for a professional athlete who had just turned 24 at the time, I expected her to resume her previous level of performance.

Prior to getting hurt, O’Neill was dominating the flyweight division, winning impressive fights against veterans like Antonina Shevchenko and Lara Fritzen, both of whom had near-flawless records at the time.

Bottom Line

If it were not for her injury, I truly believe O’Neill would be fighting for the title this year instead of getting this fight against an opponent in Maia I don’t see in her same stratosphere. With major edges across the board, including both striking (2x), submission average (9x), and takedown average (9x), I think O’Neill wins this one with relative ease.

Best Bet: Casey O’Neill (-175 via DraftKings)

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