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UFC 287: Kevin Holland vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio Picks & Predictions

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The UFC heads to South Beach this weekend, where UFC 287's main event features a rematch for the Middleweight Title between (C) Alex Pereira and #1 Israel Adesanya. There are bangers sprinkled in throughout this card, including the second matchup on the main card between Kevin Holland and Santiago Ponzinibbio. Neither Welterweight is ranked in the deeply-talented division, but both guys are more than capable of putting on a show. 

UFC 287: Holland vs. Ponzinibbio

Let's dive deeper into each fighter's recent history, break down their stats and trends, and get a best bet locked in. 

Betting Profile: Kevin Holland (13-9-0, 1 NC)

Last Five Fights (LLWWL)

Kevin Holland enters Saturday's fight on a two-fight skid, dropping bouts to Khamzat Chimaev and Stephen Thompson more recently. Both fights ended much sooner than Holland would've liked as he was submitted in the first round by Chimaev (D'Arce Choke) and eliminated after four rounds to Thompson (TKO - Corner's Decision). The American's most recent fight with Thompson was a high-volume war, seeing Holland get outstruck 163-119 over 20 minutes. You have to go back to June 2022 to find the last win for Trailblazer, a second-round submission victory (D'Arce Choke) against Tim Means. 

Statistically, the 30-year-old brawler is dealing out 4.06 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.96. He's somewhat active in the grappling department, averaging 0.89 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing at a 41% success rate. Holland is also managing to fend off 50% of opposing takedown attempts. He's currently a second-degree black belt in Kung Fu and a third-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. 

Betting Profile: Santiago Ponzinibbio (30-6-0)

Last Five Fights (WLLWL)

After rattling off seven straight victories from 2015 to 2018, Santiago Ponzinibbio has now dropped three of his last five fights. However, the Argentinian got back in the win column in a big way in December, knocking out Alex Morono in the third round. Despite being outstruck 66-38, Morono landed several severe strikes, almost putting Ponzinibbio away for good. But, the Argentine Dagger found a late, monster right hook that wobbled his opponent, and he threw in one more right for good measure, ultimately collecting the knockout win. 

In terms of statistics, Ponzinibbio is content with keeping the fight upright. He's only managing 0.52 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 30% clip. However, his takedown defense is serviceable, where he's defending 60% of opposing opportunities. The striking is where the 36-year-old makes his money, landing 5.02 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.65 strikes. As for his accolades, Ponzinibbio boasts a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. 

Bottom Line

The oddsmakers see Kevin Holland as a pretty sizable favorite coming into Saturday's bout, offering him at -240 on the moneyline. Santiago Ponzinibbio comes back at +200 to get his hand raised in this Welterweight showdown.

DraftKings Sportsbook also has Holland at +165 to win the fight by KO/TKO/DQ, making it the shortest odds in terms of method of victory betting options. I agree with the oddsmakers that Holland will win this fight, but I expect it to go the full 15 minutes. I'll take the +225 payout with the American to win by points. 

After rewatching Ponzinibbio's last fight against Alex Morono, a couple of things stood out to me. First, the Argentinian is quick and moves well. Second, his chin appears to be made of concrete. Morono nailed him with several overhand rights that would've put the average fighter to the floor, but Ponzinibbio was able to stay upright through the blows. 

I think that Holland is the more technical fighter, and he's certainly more battle-tested in recent bouts, so I'll side with him to collect the win. But, as I mentioned, I think the Argentine Dagger will be able to push this fight the full 15 minutes. Let's lock in Holland by decision for Saturday's card. 

Pick: Kevin Holland to Win by Decision (+225 via DraftKings)

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