UFC 287 Pereira vs. Adesanya: Best Bets, Picks & Predictions

The UFC is back after a two-week hiatus, and they put together a stacked card for the fans. They will travel to the Kaseya Center in Miami for the rematch between Israel Adesanya and his rival, Alex Pereira, for the middleweight title. Gilbert Burns will take on Jorge Masvidal in the co-main event, and bantamweight contenders Rob Font and Adrian Yanez will put on a show prior. 18-year-old Raul Rosas Jr. and fan-favorite Kevin Holland will also be on the pay-per-view card. The early prelims will begin at 6 p.m. EDT, the prelims at 8 p.m. on ESPN, and the main card will start at 10 p.m. via PPV on ESPN+. Let’s take a look at our top bets and picks for Saturday’s UFC 287.

UFC 287 Picks & Predictions


UFC 287: Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal

This fight seems like a crossroads in the career of Masvidal. With pending legal issues on the horizon combined with a three-fight losing streak, it feels like the storied career of Masival may be coming to an end soon. The sportsbooks see the American as a +360 betting underdog, while Gilbert Burns comes back at -450 to get his hand raised.

I have to agree with the oddsmakers here and say that Masvidal is likely in for a long night at the office. But I think Gambred will have enough in him to last the full 15 minutes, so I'll take Gilbert Burns to win by decision at +165.

Both of these brawlers are more than battle-tested at this point in their respective careers.  However, I feel that Burns has been more productive in his recent losses than Masvidal. While Burns lost the fight to Chimaev last year, it was far from one-sided. Burns actually outstruck Chimaev 119-108 over three rounds, but it wasn't enough to get it done when stacked against the two takedowns of Chimaev. 

The area of concern here for Masvidal is his takedown defense. He has an incredible takedown defense rate of 74%, but he's been outscored 13-0 in the takedown department over his three-fight losing streak. Look for Burns, a third-degree BJJ black belt, to try and take this fight to the canvas. Masvidal may be able to fend off several of the attempts, but I think Burns gets to him eventually and racks up ground control time. If this bout sees a majority of the time being spent on the floor, we shouldn’t be in for a lot of heavy knockout blows being thrown.

Ultimately, I like for Burns to get his hand raised, but I expect Masvidal to last the full 15 minutes in front of his home crowd in Miami. 

Pick: Gilbert Burns to Win by Decision (+165)


UFC 287 Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya

Make no mistake, Adesanya could very well get caught again late here. If it should get there, which I don’t think it does, I do expect a world-class fighter in Izzy to have learned from his mistakes and draw this one into a constant clinch.

Best Bet: Israel Adesanya (-135)


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