Navigate

UFC 287 Pereira vs. Adesanya Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by |

The UFC is back after a two-week hiatus, and they put together a stacked card for the fans. They will travel to the Kaseya Center in Miami for the rematch between Israel Adesanya and his rival, Alex Pereira, for the middleweight title. Gilbert Burns will take on Jorge Masvidal in the co-main event, and bantamweight contenders Rob Font and Adrian Yanez will put on a show prior. 18-year-old Raul Rosas Jr. and fan-favorite Kevin Holland will also be on the pay-per-view card. The early prelims will begin at 6 p.m. EDT, the prelims at 8 p.m. on ESPN, and the main card will start at 10 p.m. via PPV on ESPN+.

Follow my Twitter here for more picks and predictions on the day of the fights.

UFC 287 Pereira vs Adesanya: Parlay Picks

2023 total: Down 9 units

Leg 1: Karl Williams moneyline (-410)

Karl Williams and Chase Sherman will open the prelims in a heavyweight bout. Williams fought last only three weeks ago and won by unanimous decision over Lukasz Brzeski. He secured eight takedowns en route to victory and garnered over 10 minutes of control time. Sherman last fought in November 2022 and lost to Waldo Cortes-Acosta. He is 4-10 since entering the UFC in 2016 and benefits from the small pool of heavyweight fighters.

Williams is a talented wrestler and averages 5.50 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Sherman is primarily a striker with decent boxing, and his weakness is on the mat. He has only landed one takedown in his UFC career, and His takedown defense is just 66%. He is tough and attempts to put on a show every time he steps into the octagon, but he will have a hard time in this fight. Williams should be able to take him down and control him for three rounds or find a submission prior. Sherman may be slightly better standing, but it is hard to imagine this fight remains on the feet very long.

Leg 2: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Joe Pyfer does not go to decision (-500)

The matchup between Gerald Meerschaert and Joe Pyfer is intriguing. Meerschaert is 35 years old and has a record of 35-15. He has won 27 by submission and is skilled in that department. Pyfer is 26 years old and has a 10-2 record in his career. He has won 7 by knockout, including his last two fights: one in the UFC and one in Dana White's Contender Series. Both men are finishers and have clear paths to victory. Meerschaert is a decent striker and could present problems with his two-inch reach advantage. He is experienced and tough and has used these traits to win in a comeback fashion. Pyfer is aggressive and constantly looking for the knockout. He is a capable grappler in his own right, but Meerschaert is at another level. Whichever way this fight goes, it will not make it to the judges.

Leg 3: Kelvin Gastelum moneyline (-125)

Chris Curtis and Kelvin Gastelum will take us into the PPV card as the featured bout on the prelims. Gastelum has not fought since 2021 and has lost five of his last six fights. These fights were against the top middleweights in the world, so it was not the end of the world, and the time off was probably good for him. He is 31 years old and has been fighting in the UFC since 2013. Curtis is 35 years old and fought three times in 2022. He likes to stay active and usually puts on a show. He entered the UFC in 2021 and already has a 4-1 record.

This fight likely will not find the mat unless Gastelum decides to take it there. He averages 1.05 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, but Curtis has defended 100% of takedowns in the UFC. Curtis is more active on the feet, landing 5.82 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 6.39 strikes per minute. Gastelum lands 3.53 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.24 strikes per minute. He has always been at a reach disadvantage, especially at middleweight, due to his 71-inch reach. His toughness separates him from his opponents, which is perfect for this matchup. Curtis gets hit a lot, and if Gastelum can threaten the takedown enough for it to be on the mind of Curtis, he can open his hands. Gastelum will likely have a slight speed advantage but needs to mix in the takedowns even if he does not secure one.

Parlay: +168 on DraftKings Sportsbook

DraftKings is the best place to play this parlay, and betting one unit or less is the best way to attack it. The PPV main event starts at 10 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.

Check out all of our UFC 287 advice:

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App