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UFC 287 Raul Rosas Jr vs. Christian Rodriguez: Picks & Predictions (2023)

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UFC 287 gets underway this Saturday at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. This card features an incredibly deep lineup with an epic title fight set to take place in the main event.

Prior to the Pereira/Adesanya rematch, there is a bantamweight bout set to kick-off the main card between Raul Rosas Jr and Christian Rodriguez. A massive up-and-comer and youngest fighter on the UFC roster, Rosas Jr opened up as a -190 favorite and has since been bet up to his current price of -250.

Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this bantamweight bout. The play below is 0.5 units, or 0.5% of your betting bankroll.

UFC 287 Best Bet for Rosas Jr vs. Rodriguez

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Betting Profile: Raul Rosas Jr (7-0 Overall / 2-0 UFC)

Last Two Fights (W-W)

The 18-year-old blue-chip prospect not only deals with the normal stresses of being a senior in high school, but he also deals with the fact that he is the youngest professional at the top of his respective field. Rosas Jr’s story is incredible, and the Dana White Contender Series veteran looks as legit as one can be in his circumstances.

Undefeated through seven professional fights, Rosas Jr boasts a dominating five first-round victories. Four of those victories came via submission while the other came via knockout. The UFC want to continue to build up Rosas Jr, who often trends on social media when he fights due to his dominance and the fact that he is this talented at 18-years-old.

Knowing this, matchmakers are giving him another opponent whom he should take care of business with in Christian Rodriguez.

Betting Profile: Christian Rodriguez (8-1 Overall / 2-1 UFC)

Last Three Fights: (W-L-W)

There is not meant to be any disrespect towards Rodriguez, who is an impressive 8-1 professionally and 2-1 since joining the UFC. However, there are levels to this game, and Rodriguez has simply not shown the same sort of domination that Rosas Jr has.

Yes, Rodriguez won his last fight with an Anaconda Choke in the first round. However, he was losing the fight up to that point, getting controlled both in the grappling department and on the feet.

Prior to that win, Rodriguez lost via unanimous decision to Jonathan Pearce, a scrap in which Pearce landed six of 10 takedowns while amassing a dominating 11 minutes of control time. As a betting underdog, Rodriguez is 0-1 in his career.

Bottom Line

The problem for Rodriguez is that there is not a strong avenue to victory for him in this fight. If he goes to the mat with Rosas Jr then it will likely be over in minutes unless he can pull a submission out of the hat like he did against Joshua Weems.

Rodriguez will likely need to stay on the feet, especially considering that he boasts a four-inch reach advantage. However, he does give up two inches in height and is a below-average striker who sometimes struggles with his accuracy.

Rosas Jr should be able to compete on the feet with Rodriguez, and if it goes to the mat, well, good luck. Once again, look for a quick statement victory from the 18-year-old.

Bet Bet: Raul Rosas Jr in Round 1 (+320 via BetRivers) – 0.5 units

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.

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