UFC 288 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Jessica Andrade vs. Xiaonan Yan

The UFC packs its bags this weekend and heads to Newark, New Jersey, where the promotion puts on UFC 288. All fights lead to the Bantamweight Championship of the World as Aljamain Sterling (C) looks to defend his belt against former double-champion Henry Cejudo.

Prior to that bout and co-main event between Belal Muhammad (#4) and Gilbert Burns (#5), we have a banger in the Women's Strawweight division as Jessica Andrade (#4) takes on Xiaonan Yan (#6). Let's dive into each fighter's recent form, break down their styles, and lock in a best bet for the co-main event.

• Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo
• Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns
• Charles Jourdain vs. Kron Gracie
• UFC 288 Sterling vs. Cejudo: Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions

UFC 288: Jessica Andrade vs. Xiaonan Yan Best Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Betting Profile: Jessica Andrade (24-10-0)

Last Five Fights (LWWWL)

Jessica "Bate Estaca" Andrade will already be making the walk for her third time this year when she steps into the octagon Saturday night. The former champion is 1-1 in those fights, edging out Lauren Murphy (U-DEC) in January and losing to Erin Blanchfield a month later via second-round submission (Rear Naked Choke). Andrade has always been an active striker, but she set a personal best in the win over Murphy, landing 231 strikes compared to her opponent's 100. 

Andrade comes into Saturday's tilt averaging 6.84 significant strikes per minute while absorbing an inflated 5.34 strikes. In terms of grappling, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt holder is landing 2.64 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 54% success rate while defending 73% of opposing attempts. 

Betting Profile: Xiaonan Yan (16-3-0, 1 NC)

Last Five Fights (WLLWW)

Xiaonan Yan has quickly risen through the rankings of the Women's Strawweight division as she's now 7-2 in the UFC promotion. It's worth noting that all seven of her wins in the UFC have come via decision; however, an additional seven victories have come via knockout en route to a 9-1 record with previous professional outlets. Most recently in the UFC octagon, Yan edged out Mackenzie Dern in a majority decision after out-striking her opponent 113-61 over 25 minutes. Dern was able to land a pair of takedowns, where she managed 9:19 worth of ground control time. Before the win were losses to Carla Esparza (KO) and Marina Rodriguez (S-DEC) more recently.

Statistically, Xiaonan Yan is also an active striker, amassing 5.45 significant strikes per minute. She's absorbing just 3.53 significant strikes per minute as well. The Chinese-born brawler is currently a blue belt in BJJ under the legendary Urijah Faber. In terms of her grappling, Yan is averaging 0.70 takedowns landed per 15 minutes at a 66% clip. She's also defending 70% of opposing attempts. 

Bottom Line

The oddsmakers see a bit of a disparity in terms of these fighters' skill levels as DraftKings Sportsbook is offering Jessica Andrade as a -190 moneyline favorite. Meanwhile, Xiaonan Yan comes back at +160 to get her hand raised. 

I'd have to agree that Andrade is the favorite based on her storied career and the level of success she's had over the years. I anticipate her getting her hand raised on Saturday night, but I don't like laying the -190 juice in this spot. Therefore, I'll take her to get it done by decision. 

In over 20 professional fights, Yan has departed the cage early just two times in a losing effort. The most recent was a knockout at the hands of Carla Esparza in May of 2021. She has a solid chin and should be able to withstand Andrade's high-volume output.

Andrade appears to still have the edge in wrestling and that'll allow her to find success in this fight. Over Yan's last four fights, she lost the takedown battle 7-2. I wouldn't be surprised if Andrade is able to get it done by submission or knockout from ground-and-pound, but I think Yan will be able to last the full 15 minutes. Let's take a shot with the plus-money payout that comes with Andrade winning by decision. 

Pick: Jessica Andrade To Win By Decision (+215)

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts