UFC 289 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana
UFC 289 gets underway this Saturday at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia. While this is certainly not the deepest PPV lineup to grace our screens, the main card features some great bouts.
In the main event, the bantamweight title is on the line as Amanda Nunes looks to defend the belt against the number five contender, Irene Aldana. After opening near the four-dollar mark, Nunes has been bet down to almost a -300 favorite.
Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this bantamweight title fight. The play below is 0.35 units or 0.35% of your betting bankroll.
UFC 289 Best Bet for Nunes vs. Aldana
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Betting Profile: Amanda Nunes (22-5 Overall / 16-3 UFC)
Last Five Fights (W-L-W-W-W)
Amanda Nunes looks to continue her historic career with yet another successful title defense. After losing for the first time in over six years to Julianna Pena via submission in December 2021, she rebounded as many expected her to with an utterly dominant unanimous decision over Pena in July 2022.
That win was so convincing that we saw an ever-rare 50-43 scorecard. There is not much one can add that is not already known of the double-champ, as Nunes will go down as one of the most successful pound-for-pound fighters in the history of MMA.
With that latest performance against Pena, there is no denying that Nunes is still in her prime.
Betting Profile: Irene Aldana (14-6 Overall / 7-4 UFC)
The current number five ranked contender in the bantamweight division, Irene Aldana, gets her shot at the belt after Pena was forced out of her trilogy fight against Nunes due to a rib injury. While this is a nice opportunity for Aldana, and anything is possible when that cage door closes, she and Nunes are just on two totally different levels.
Aldana is a strong striker who throws in massive volume, which is why she has won each of her past two fights via knockout. However, her willingness to throw at high volume also leads to her taking a ton of damage throughout the fight.
Since joining the UFC, Aldana has absorbed 5.71 significant strikes per minute. With that said, she has an iron chin and has not been knocked out in nearly eight years.
Going to the mat is something Aldana will desperately look to avoid in this scrap, a place where she got dominated by Holly Holm in her latest loss.
Bottom Line
While Aldana will try to avoid the mat, Nunes could easily still take this fight there. We saw that game plan in her second bout against Pena, In that scrap, Nunes landed six of eight takedowns while racking up nearly 12 minutes of control time.
She is by far the better wrestler and grappler in this fight, and it would not be shocking at all if Nunes coasts her way to another dominating unanimous decision victory. Even if this fight stays on the feet, Nunes is still the better striker despite that being Aldana’s one strength.
Nunes could out-strike her to a decision victory, but knocking Aldana out will be a tougher task due to that aforementioned iron chin. Three of Nunes’ past four wins have come via decision, while each of Aldana’s past four losses needed the judge’s input.
Best Bet: Amanda Nunes via Decision (+310 via DraftKings – 0.35 units)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.