UFC 289 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Dan Ige vs. Nate Landwehr
It’s a massive weekend in Canada as the RBC Canadian Open gets underway in Toronto, Ont. and the UFC makes its way to Vancouver, B.C., for a numbered event. It’s UFC 289, and all roads lead to a Women’s Bantamweight Championship fight between Amanda Nunes (C) and Irene Aldana (No. 5).
We have a stacked card throughout, including the second fight of the main card between Dan Ige (No. 13) and Nate Landwehr. Let’s check out each fighter’s current form and dive into how I’m betting this Featherweight bout.
UFC 289 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Dan Ige vs. Nate Landwehr
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Dan Ige (16-6-0)
Last Five Fights (W-L-L-L-W)
Dan “50K†Ige snapped his three-fight losing streak last time he made the walk, knocking out Damon Jackson 4:13 into the second round back in January. The striking numbers were 36-34 in favor of Jackson, but they’re misleading as Ige left his opponent bloodied while he didn’t have much of a scratch. Ultimately, 50K landed a massive left hook to earn the KO, living up to his nickname and receiving a $50,000 Performance of the Night bonus.
We’ve become accustomed to the heavy hands of Ige, as his last two victories came via knockout. Of his 16 professional wins, 10 are split evenly between knockouts and submissions, while six have come by the judges’ scorecards. Ige’s landing 3.80 significant strikes per minute but also absorbing 3.58. Regarding the takedown numbers, the American’s managing 1.25 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 26% success rate while defending 52% of opposing attempts. It’s also worth noting that 50K is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a brown belt in Judo.
Betting Profile: Nate Landwehr (17-4-0)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-L-W)
Nate “The Train†Landwehr appears to be on the upswing as he’s rattled off three straight victories and has four wins in his last five fights. Most recently, the 35-year-old put together a dominant performance against Austin Lingo in March. He outstruck the opposition 64-48, landed a takedown and ultimately locked in a rear naked choke 4:11 into the second round. It was Landwehr’s second submission victory during the win streak, with the other being an anaconda choke against Ludovit Klein in October 2021.
Surprisingly, of his 17 professional victories, those are Landwehr’s only two submission wins. He has amassed eight knockouts, while seven have come via the judges’ scorecards. The output is insane for The Train, who is landing an inflated 6.47 significant strikes per minute. However, he’s also absorbing 5.51 strikes per minute. In the grappling department, the American-born brawler is averaging 1.36 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 62% clip while defending 86% of opposing attempts.
Bottom Line
While the wins have been sparse for Ige recently, he still comes into Saturday’s bout as a sizable -260 moneyline favorite. The rising Landwehr comes back at +220 to get his hand raised. I believe this line is priced a bit too high in favor of Ige. I believe that there is some value to be had here with Landwehr. Both of these men are great wrestlers, and if they each negate each other’s takedown attempts, we’ll be in for a war on the feet.
Ultimately, I lean toward the fight playing out that way and staying vertical for a good portion. With the volume of striking output (and input) that Landwehr deals out (and absorbs), I think someone’s going to sleep here. These are two fighters trying desperately to climb the rankings, and they’re going to be throwing everything they have at one another.
Ige’s last two wins have come by knockout, while three of the last four fights for Landwehr have ended before the final horn. I’m rolling with the under 2.5 rounds in this Featherweight tilt Saturday night.
Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-130)
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts