UFC 289 Preliminary Card Odds, Picks & Predictions
It's a massive weekend in Canada as the RBC Canadian Open gets underway in Toronto, Ont. and the UFC makes its way to Vancouver, B.C., for a numbered event. It's UFC 289, and all roads lead to a Women's Bantamweight Championship fight between Amanda Nunes (C) and Irene Aldana (No. 5).
We have a stacked card throughout the event featuring a total of 11 fights. I'm taking it to the prelims for this best bets article, where I'm diving into my top three plays on the undercard. Without further ado, here are the picks and a brief analysis of each wager.
UFC 289 Preliminary Card Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Nassourdine Imavov (-155) vs. Chris Curtis (+135)
The prelims wrap up with an absolute banger in the Middleweight division between 12th-ranked Nassourdine Imavov and 14th-ranked Chris Curtis. The oddsmakers see the French-born brawler as a slight -155 favorite, while Curtis returns at +135 to get his hand raised.
I don't expect this fight to make it to the judges' scorecards Saturday night. The output by both of these men is insanely high, with Imavov averaging 4.32 significant strikes per minute while Curtis is at 5.59 strikes. Imavov is coming off of a five-round decision loss to Sean Strickland, where the duo combined for 305 strikes over 25 minutes.
Sure, the number of significant strikes doesn't always equate to a knockout, but Imavov and Curtis have knockout power. Four out of five of Curtis' UFC victories have come by knockout, while half of Imavov's four wins have. With each fighter averaging less than 0.75 takedowns per 15 minutes, we can expect a vertical fight where these two are throwing hands at a high rate.
Bet: Fight Does Not Go the Distance (+100)
Kyle Nelson (+200) vs. Blake Bilder (-240)
Blake Bilder is a perfect 2-0 in the UFC octagon and enters Saturday night's event at 8-0-1 in his professional career. The American opens up the prelims taking on a floundering Kyle Nelson, who is 13-5-1 in his career, but only 1-4-1 in five UFC bouts. Bilder rightfully comes into this Featherweight tilt as more than a 2-1 favorite to win the contest.
There's no way I'm betting against the upward-trending Bilder in this spot - especially in a matchup against Nelson, who is winless in his last four fights. Instead of laying the juice on the moneyline, I'll say that the American can get it done inside the distance at +120.
Although Nelson has gone the distance in two straight fights, his previous four ended prematurely. As for Bilder, he tapped out Alexander Morgan in the first round of his DWCS fight and followed it up with a unanimous decision win, where he landed 111 significant strikes against Shane Young. I think he has plenty of power and a decent ground game where he can finish it within 15 minutes.
Bet: Blake Bilder to Win by Any Knockout, Submission or DQ (+120)
David Dvorak (-265) vs. Stephen Erceg (+225)
There are two fights on the early preliminary card, and the second features a matchup between 10th-ranked David Dvorak and Stephen Erceg in a Flyweight showdown. Dvorak was originally scheduled to fight Matt Schnell (No. 8). However, Schnell was forced to withdraw, opening the door for the Australian-born Erceg to make his UFC debut.
Erceg isn't just some random rookie taking a short-notice fight. He boasts a 9-1 professional record and has six submissions to his résume. However, the big question is whether or not he can get Dvorak to the canvas to work on submission attempts. Considering Dvorak is a battle-tested brawler with an 81% takedown defense rate, I lean toward "The Undertaker" being able to hold his own in that department.
Solely based on the professional experience of Erceg, I think we'll see him hang around in this fight. Still, this is a major step up in competition, taking on the 10th-ranked fighter in a stacked Flyweight division. Dvorak should take care of business, and I think he gets it done by points.
Bet: David Dvorak by Decision (+110)
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