UFC 290 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez

by Trenton Pruitt |
Jul 06, 2023

It's International Fight Week in the Fight Capital of the World, Las Vegas, Nevada. All of the week's UFC events lead up to Saturday night, where we have a pair of title fights headlining UFC 290. The co-main event features a Flyweight championship bout between Brandon Moreno (C) and Alexandre Pantoja (#2). The nightcap is a Featherweight battle where interim champion Yair Rodriguez looks to knock off the top dog, Alexander Volkanovski.

Let's dive into the main event, preview each fighter, and lock in a best bet for this Featherweight tilt.

Best UFC 290 Bets: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Betting Profile: Alexander Volkanovski (25-2-0)

Last Five Fights (LWWWW)

Alexander "The Great" Volkanovski had his 12-fight win streak snapped when he made the walk in February of this year. However, he shouldn't hang his head as Volk stepped up a weight class to challenge Islam Makhachev for a chance to be a double champion. The Lightweight bout ended in favor of Makhachev (U-DEC), who managed four takedowns on Volkanovski. It's worth noting the Australian actually outstruck Makhachev 70-57 over the 25 minutes of action.

The loss is hardly a blemish on Volkanovski's record, as he's still the second-ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the promotion. Statistically, the 34-year-old is dealing out 6.35 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.40. In the grappling department, Volkanovski is landing 1.52 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 34% success rate. He's defending 69% of opposing attempts. Finally, I'd be remiss not to mention that the champion boasts a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

Betting Profile: Yair Rodriguez (16-3-0, 1 NC)

Last Five Fights (WWLWNC)

On the same night that Volkanovski dropped his bid to be a double champion, Yair Rodriguez earned the interim strap in the Featherweight division by defeating Josh Emmett via triangle choke in the second round. It was a dominant outing from the rising Rodriguez, who amassed 62 strikes compared to Emmett's 22. "El Pantera" has now won three of his last four fights, with the lone defeat coming at the hands of Max Holloway (U-DEC).

Statistically, the Mexican-born brawler is averaging 4.78 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.03. He's a black belt in Taekwondo, and he's been training in the art since he was five years old. In terms of wrestling, Rodriguez is landing 0.79 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 28% clip. He's defending 63% of opposing takedown attempts.

Bottom Line

The oddsmakers aren't anticipating Yair Rodriguez putting up much of a fight Saturday as DraftKings Sportsbook sees the interim champ as a +285 moneyline underdog. Alexander the Great comes back at -375 to get his hand raised.

Even though I've been impressed with Rodriguez's recent success, I have to agree with the sportsbooks in saying Volkanovski gets it done here. The Australian is simply too battle-tested compared to 30-year-old El Pantera. Volkanovski has been fighting the cream of the crop for years now - and winning! The only blemish over his 13-fight UFC career was last time out against a dominant Islam Makhachev, and Volk held his own over the 25 minutes.

Now, as I said, I think Rodriguez is a rising star in the octagon, and I believe he'll be able to last until the final horn. He's a fantastic kickboxer, so he should be able to use his legs to keep some distance from the always-aggressive Volkanovski. Sure, Volkanovski hits hard for 145 Lbs., but a lot of his knockout power comes when he's on top and utilizing the ground and pound.

As long as Rodriguez avoids spending a massive amount of time in a detrimental bottom position, he should survive the full 25 minutes. I would assume he's been drilling takedown defense a ton during his camp. So, all things considered, I'll take the plus-money payout that comes with Alexander Volkanovski to win by points.

Pick: Alexander Volkanovski To Win By Decision (+140 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

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