UFC 290 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Jalin Turner vs. Dan Hooker

by Tony Sartori |
Jul 07, 2023

UFC 290 gets underway this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. This card is absolutely loaded for International Fight Week, with great bouts from top-to-bottom.

On the main card, there is a lightweight bout between the number 11 contender Jalin Turner and number 12 Dan Hooker. After opening up as a moderate favorite, Turner has now been bet up near the three-dollar mark.

Below, I will walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this lightweight fight. The play below is 0.41 units or 0.41% of your betting bankroll.

UFC 290 Best Bet for Turner vs. Hooker

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Betting Profile: Jalin Turner (13-6 Overall / 7-3 UFC)

Last Five Fights (L-W-W-W-W)

Jalin Turner has had a meteoric rise in the 155-pound division, winning five of his past six fights, with all five of those wins coming via finish. While he is coming off a loss to Mateusz Gamrot, it was a narrow split decision performance, and there could even be an argument that Turner won the fight (although I, along with most media scores, scored it 29-28 Gamrot).

That loss did not drop Turnerâ€™s stock by any means in my eyes, especially considering Gamrot is the seventh-ranked contender in the loaded lightweight division, and every single ranking is a massive step up. That is just the way it goes in the UFCâ€™s most stacked division â€“ you practically can only move one rung up at a time with how loaded the 155 weight class is.

Possessing a ton of power while also capable of handling himself in the grappling department, Turner is a finishing machine. In fact, all 13 of his professional wins have come inside the distance.

Betting Profile: Dan Hooker (22-12 Overall / 12-8 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-L-L-W-L)

It has been a much different story for Dan Hooker lately, who returns to the lightweight division having lost four of his past six fights. However, those four losses came against Arnold Allen, Islam Makhachev, Michael Chandler, and Dustin Poirier.

That is an absurd level of talent to go against, and not a single one of those should be considered a bad loss. However, my bigger concern with Hooker is that, while he does not have a bad loss, he does not have a good win in years either.

He has won just five of his past 10 fights, with those five wins coming against Claudio Puelles (unranked), Nasrat Haqparast (unranked), a split decision over a near-retirement Paul Felder, Al Iaquinta (unranked), and James Vick (unranked). Hooker does not have a single marquee win since his victory over Gilbert Burn in 2018, which is part of the reason for his price as such a big underdog.

Bottom Line

As fun as this fight will be, these two guys are just trending in opposite directions. At just 28 years old, Turner is one of the big-time prospects in the lightweight division, especially considering his balanced attack style and perfect build for 155 pounds.

He is almost always the longer and taller fighter at 155, which has helped him keep his perfect finish rate intact. It would not be shocking if that trend stays alive against Hooker, someone whose chin has been a problem over the past half-decade.

Four of his past five losses have come inside the distance, having been knocked out by Edson Barboza, Michael Chandler, and Arnold Allen. With Turnerâ€™s power, it could be a quick night for Hooker if he gets caught.

Best Bet: Jalin Turner via KO/TKO/DQ (+200 via BetRivers â€“ 0.41 units)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.

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