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UFC 290 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus Du Plessis

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Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus Du Plessis is a matchup that, on paper, seems exceptionally one-sided. Du Plessis has been able to get two finishes in a row, but Whittaker is another level from anyone he has ever fought. Whittaker has disposed of every single Middleweight not named Israel Adesanya. He is the proverbial opponent you have to beat to fight for a championship. Let’s dive into this matchup!!

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.

We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport.

Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus Du Plessis: UFC 290 Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions

Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.

Glossary

  • Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
  • Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
  • Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
  • Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
  • Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
  • KD%: Knockdown percentage (knockdowns/distance strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
  • Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
  • Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
  • Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The main key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!

Robert Whittaker (-400) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (+300)

Robert Whittaker 

  • Dist Acc Off: 47.3%
  • Dist Att/Min: 9.98
  • Dist Def: 66%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 264 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 12.5%
  • Control % Def: 1.3%

Dricus Du Plessis 

  • Dist Acc Off: 51.4%
  • Dist Att/Min: 14.10
  • Dist Def: 53%
  • KD%: .5% (1 KD out of 178 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 21.3%
  • Control % Def: 12.6%

The most glaring thing about this matchup is the difference in defense. Du Plessis is considerably below average at distance defense (UFC average is 67%). Also, from an eye test standpoint, his cardio is very suspect. He does fight at a higher activity rate, but it is normally to his detriment. Whittaker will not be overwhelmed by his pressure. Du Plessis will not be able to control Whittaker from an offensive standpoint either, so he will have to outpoint him, which only one person in the world has really done recently. -400 is a lot of juice to lay on Whittaker, as anything can happen in MMA. I just don’t see Whittaker getting hit with some wild overhand that shuts his lights out.

Bottom Line

I see Du Plessis gassing out and Whittaker just putting on the pressure to end it.

Bets: Whittaker by KO/TKO (+115) and Whittaker Round 2 (+400)

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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or if you have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Have a safe and fun holiday, and good luck with your bets!!!

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