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UFC 290 Prelims Card: Odds, Picks & Predictions

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UFC 290 looks to be the premier event of the year. I do not know if the UFC can make this card more stacked and versatile. It is a perfect blend of veterans, contenders, and prospects, and it is topped with two amazing title fights. This card has the recipe to be an all-time great card. Let’s dive in!!

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.

We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport.

Prelims: UFC 290 Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions

Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.

Glossary

  • Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
  • Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
  • Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
  • Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
  • Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
  • KD%: Knockdown percentage (knockdowns/distance strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
  • Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
  • Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
  • Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The main key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data.

Niko Price (-240) vs. Robbie Lawler (+200)

Niko Price

  • Dist Acc Off: 41.7%
  • Dist Att/Min: 17.29
  • Dist Def: 49%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 198 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 19.6%
  • Control % Def: 17.2%

Robbie Lawler

  • Dist Acc Off: 54.4%
  • Dist Att/Min: 13.81
  • Dist Def: 55%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 192 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 5.2%
  • Control % Def: 23.18%

This should be a fun fireworks-style fight. Niko Price rarely has a boring fight, and if this stays standing, Lawler should have the environment to do what he does best. Price has a higher activity rate, but it is actually lower than Lawler’s last two opponents, who combined for an average of 27.37 Dist Att/min. Price’s distance defense is concerning. Even though Lawler has slowed down later in his career, he still boasts stellar accuracy at distance.

Bet: Lawler (+200) and Lawler by KO/TKO (+400) are the plays. I see Lawler connecting with a big shot and just outclassing the reckless Price. 

Yazmin Jauregi (-375) vs Denise Gomes (+285)

Yazmin Jauregi

  • Dist Acc Off: 37.3%
  • Dist Att/Min: 15.76
  • Dist Def: 60%
  • KD%: 1.6% (2 KDs out of 119 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 12.6%
  • Control % Def: 3.3%

Denise Gomes

  • Dist Acc Off: 43.3%
  • Dist Att/Min: 16.52
  • Dist Def: 65%
  • KD%: .7% (1 KD out of 131 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 25.2%
  • Control % Def: 26.2%

I feel as if this line is a little too wide. Jauregui is undefeated and has really shown up in her first couple of UFC fights, but being this big of a favorite gives me pause. Gomes has incredible distance defense with above-average distance accuracy. Gomes also mixes in a high control % Off, giving her another path to victory. This play is specifically because I feel as if there is too much value on the line.

Bet: Gomes (+285) is the play.

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or if you have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter.

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