UFC 290 Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions

by Trenton Pruitt |
Jul 07, 2023

International Fight Week hits its peak on Saturday night when two title fights headline UFC 290. The co-main event features a Flyweight Championship bout between Brandon Moreno (C) and Alexandre Pantoja (No. 2). The nightcap is a Featherweight battle where interim champion Yair Rodriguez looks to dethrone the top dog, Alexander Volkanovski.

I'm taking it to the prop sheet in this article, and I have a trio of main card prop bets locked in. Let's dive into my top three prop bets for UFC 290.

Best UFC 290 Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Alexander Volkanovski (-375) vs. Yair Rodriguez (+285)

Let's start with the main event for UFC 290, a Featherweight tilt between Alexander Volkanovski (C) and Yair Rodriguez (IC). The oddsmakers see Volk as a sizable favorite, coming in at -375 to get his hand raised. The rising Rodriguez comes back at +285 to consolidate the division's belt.

I think we're in for a 25-minute war on Saturday night, so I'm taking a shot with the +110 payout saying this fight goes the distance. Volkanovski has yet to be finished over 13 career UFC fights. That includes lasting 25 minutes in a Lightweight title bout against the dangerous Islam Makhachev in February. Unless Rodriguez catches him with a gnarly head kick, I think the champion goes the distance with ease.

As for Rodriguez, he has a five-inch height advantage over Volk, and he's a fantastic kickboxer. Those are two big edges that should help keep his distance from the Australian. Rodriguez's best chance to win this fight is to keep it upright. The last thing he needs is to be on his back and receive the vicious ground-and-pound attack of Volkanovski. That said, I would assume he's been training his takedown defense this whole camp. If he stays out of that compromising position, he should be able to last 25 minutes.

Bet: Fight To Go the Distance (+110)

Robert Whittaker (-410) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (+310)

The middle fight of UFC 290's main card is a highly anticipated Middleweight clash between Robert Whittaker (No. 2) and Dricus Du Plessis (No. 5). This bout is being billed as a title eliminator fight, which means the winner should get a shot at Israel Adesanya (C) in the future.

I know the fans want knockouts and finishes, but like the main event above, I think we're going to the judge's scorecards in this one. I'm expecting Whittaker to take care of business here, but he doesn't pack the knockout power he used to. As a matter of fact, he hasn't finished an opponent since April 2017. Over the span, the Australian is 6-2, and all six victories have come via points.

On the flip side, there's no denying that Du Plessis is on the rise in the division. However, I still think he has work to do before climbing into the upper echelon of the division. Whittaker's more well-rounded, and considering he boasts an 84% takedown defense rate, I think he'll be able to keep the fight upright. If this turns into a boxing match, it should go the full three rounds.

Bet: Fight To Go the Distance (+165)

Bo Nickal (-2800) vs. Val Woodburn (+1300)

The main card opens up with an absolute banger of a Middleweight bout as Bo Nickal takes on Val Woodburn. The latter stepped in for Tresean Gore, who was forced to withdraw due to a ligament tear in his wrist. Nickal enters as a massive -2800 moneyline favorite, while Woodburn returns at +1300.

Sure, Nickal has his three-fight streak where he's ended the opposition prior to the finish of the first round. I think the streak gets snapped this time around. Woodburn will make his UFC debut on Saturday, but he's far from inexperienced. The 29-year-old is 7-0-0 in his professional career, and he's the Middleweight champion of the Combat Night promotion.

The main question is whether or not he'll be able to fend off the onslaught of takedown attempts from Nickal. Woodburn trains with UFC veteran Chris Curtis. Curtis boasts a 92% takedown defense rate in the UFC. Curtis Tweeted this out, speaking about Woodburn, "It's hard to double leg a fire hydrant, trust me I've tried and Val is coming to scrap."

We'll see how it plays out Saturday, but considering the professional experience of Woodburn, I think it's worth a shot with a +250 payout to say he lasts through at least the first round.

Bet: Fight to Start Round 2 (+250)

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