UFC 291 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Bobby Green vs. Tony Ferguson

Bobby Green vs Tony Ferguson is a matchup that 5 years ago would have had us sitting on the edge of our seats with excitement. This weekend we will be sitting on the edge of our seats concerned. Ferguson has looked like a shell of himself over his last 5 fights and this has the potential to be his retirement fight. It is sad to watch because his career run through the lightweight division was one that will stand the test of time but never reached its absolute peak. This matchup vs Bobby Green will not be easy in any way shape or form. Let’s dive into this matchup!!!

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.

We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about a highly volatile sport.

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Bobby Green vs. Tony Ferguson: UFC 291 Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions

Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.

Glossary

• Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
• Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
• Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
• Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
• Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
• KD%: Knockdown percentage (knockdowns/distance strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
• Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
• Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
• Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The main key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!

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Bobby Green (-380) vs. Tony Ferguson (+310)

Bobby Green

• Dist Acc Off: 50.1%
• Dist Att/Min: 20.02
• Dist Def: 73%
• KD%: .3% (1 KD out of 293 distance strikes)
• Control % Off: 1.5%
• Control % Def: .3%

Tony Ferguson

• Dist Acc Off: 43.4%
• Dist Att/Min: 10.21
• Dist Def: 56%
• KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 103 distance strikes)
• Control % Off: .2%
• Control % Def: 38.9%

There are two glaring differences between Green and Ferguson. Green has a considerably higher distance defense and fights at nearly double the pace as Ferguson. Ferguson, in theory, would have an advantage on the ground, but I do not see him being able to get Green there. Green has an exceptional control % defense, and if you are not an elite-level grappler, you are not getting him there. It makes me sad to write this, but I do not see a way that Ferguson beats Green. Green is going to pick him apart and overwhelm him with activity.

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Bottom Line

Green is going to systematically pick apart the slower Ferguson.

Bets: Green by KO/TKO +165 and Green by finish Round 1 +300