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UFC 291 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje

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UFC 291 gets underway this Saturday at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. This card is absolutely loaded, with great bouts from top-to-bottom.

In the main event, the BMF belt is on the line as Justin Gaethje gets a shot at redemption against Dustin Poirier. Gaethje was a victim of some brilliant striking that led to a TKO finish but looks to improve his performance this time around.

Below, I will walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this lightweight bout.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 291 Odds, Picks & Predictions

Betting Profile: Dustin Poirier (29-7 Overall / 22-7 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-L-W-W-W)

Not only does Dustin Poirier look to take care of business once again in this bout against Justin Gaethje, but he looks to re-enter the 155-pound title conversation. His only two losses over the past seven years are to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira.

Nurmagomedov is one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in UFC history, while Oliveira is about to get another shot at the title against Islam Makhachev at UFC 294. Needless to say, neither of those two losses should be considered “bad” as Poirier has cemented himself as one of the top 155-pound fighters of the past decades.

At 33 years old, Poirier is still in his prime, with his past seven wins coming against Michael Chandler, Conor McGregor (2x), Dan Hooker, Max Holloway, Eddie Alvarez, and Justin Gaethje. A great mixed martial artist, Poirier has the ability to out-strike anyone while also knowing how to handle himself on the mat.

Betting Profile: Justin Gaethje (24-4 Overall / 7-4 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-L-W-L-W)

Gaethje’s 7-4 record in the UFC is very misleading. Like Poirier, he consistently faces the best 155-pound fighters the world has to offer, with his four losses coming against Oliveira, Nurmagomedov, Poirier, and Alvarez.

Meanwhile, Gaethje has also proved he is capable of beating other top-ranked fighters, evidenced by his latest wins over Rafael Fiziev, Chandler, and Tony Ferguson. While Poirier brings a little more to the table in terms of a well-rounded game, Gaethje typically just stands and bangs with his iron chin and powerful striking.

Gaethje’s wrestling has continued to develop over the years, but it is his striking ability to stand in the pocket and withstand damage that separates him from others in the division.

Bottom Line

Gaethje is one of my favorite fighters to ever step foot in the octagon. He gives the fans exactly what they want every time out, which is standing in the pocket and taking/delivering damage at an explosive rate.

With his straightforward and honest demeanor outside of the cage, it is no shock that Gaethje is a massive fan-favorite. With that said, he just does not bring as much to the table as Poirier.

Poirier’s jiu-jitsu, muay Thai, and wrestling are all stronger than Gaethje’s. While Gaethje possesses an edge in the striking department, it is only marginal, as Poirier can also stand and bang with anyone.

There are just too many more avenues for Poirier to take in this fight if he gets in trouble, and with the confidence of beating Gaethje in their first meeting, we could see a similar result the second time around.

Best Bet: Dustin Poirier via Decision (+425 via DraftKings)

More UFC 291 Odds & Picks

Check out the rest of the UFC 291 Fight Card Odds>>

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.

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