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UFC 291 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Jan Blachowicz vs Alex Pereira

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UFC 291 gets underway this Saturday at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. This card is absolutely loaded, with great fights from top-to-bottom.

In the co-main event, there is a light heavyweight bout between the No. 3 contender Jan Blachowicz and Alex Pereira. After capturing the 185-pound belt against long-time rival Israel Adesanya and then losing in the subsequent rematch, Pereira is moving up to 205, which is a much more natural weight for him.

Below, I will walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this light heavyweight bout.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 291 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Jan Blachowicz vs Alex Pereira

Betting Profile: Jan Blachowicz (29-9-1 Overall / 12-6-1 UFC)

Last Five Fights (D-W-L-W-W)

The former light heavyweight champion looks to solidify his spot in line for the vacant belt with a win at UFC 291. Jan Blachowicz is just coming off his draw against Magomed Ankalaev (which, coincidentally, was for the then-vacated title), although it was a very questionable decision as Ankalaev appeared to have complete control over the final three rounds of the fight.

That draw capped off a tumultuous couple of years for Blachowicz, who won the belt, defended it against the 185-pound Adesanya, and then lost it to Glover Teixeira in his next fight. He then earned another shot with his win over Aleksander Rakic, although Rakic had to retire from that bout due to injury.

The Ankalaev fight showed some troubling aspects to Blachowicz’s game, given that he had no answer for the wrestling and could not do anything over the final two rounds. While he did a lot of damage with his leg kicks early on, Blachowicz’s striking also faded heavily down the stretch.

Betting Profile: Alex Pereira (7-2 Overall / 4-1 UFC)

Last Five Fights (L-W-W-W-W)

Alex Pereira has made a seamless transition into MMA after his successful kickboxing run. Continuing his kickboxing rivalry with Adesanya in the UFC, Pereira has shown that he absolutely belonged with a 1-1 record against one of the best mixed martial artists in the world and three other commanding victories over Sean Strickland, Bruno Silva, and Andreas Michailidis.

With dynamite in his hands, Pereira might have perhaps the most dangerous one-punch strikes in the UFC. Possessing a monster frame, a solid chin, and brilliant striking, the remaining question for Pereira is how he can handle himself in the grappling and wrestling departments.

Training with his good friend and former light heavyweight champion, Glover Teixeira, that is certainly one of the main focuses in camp to get ready for Blachowicz.

Bottom Line

There is not a better matchup that could have been granted for Pereira in his 205-pound debut. Not that Blachowicz is any walk-in-the-park, obviously, but this fight gives Pereira an immediate look at the title if he goes on to win.

Not only that, but Pereira’s main training partner is a guy who just beat Blachowicz for the light heavyweight strap in 2021. Teixeira utilized his advanced grappling and wrestling to dominate the fight before winning via submission in the second round, which is the only question mark in Pereira’s game.

While Pereira will not be able to perform that aspect of the fight at that level, the development will be crucial to help solidify the win if the bout heads to the mat at any given point. With the striking advantage and a (theoretically) sound-enough ground game to survive, there are multiple avenues for Pereira to rack up points and win this bout via decision.

Best Bet: Alex Pereira via Decision (+700 via DraftKings)

More UFC 291 Odds & Picks

Check out the rest of the UFC 291 Fight Card Odds>>

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.

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