UFC 291 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Kevin Holland vs. Michael Chiesa

Michael Chiesa makes his return to the octagon after a nearly two-year layoff. In that time frame, Kevin Holland has fought five times. Chiesa is known for his ground control and submission game but hasn’t secured a submission since 2018 vs Carlos Condit. Chiesa’s last wins are as follows: Neil Magny, Rafael Dos Anjos, and Diego Sanchez. No offense to those fighters but Kevin Holland is leaps and bounds better at this point in his career. This will make for an intriguing matchup.  Let’s dive in!!!

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.

We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about a highly volatile sport.

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Kevin Holland vs. Michael Chiesa: UFC 291 Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions

Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.

Glossary

• Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
• Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
• Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
• Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
• Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
• KD%: Knockdown percentage (knockdowns/distance strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
• Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
• Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
• Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The main key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!

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Kevin Holland (-140) vs. Michael Chiesa (+120)

Kevin Holland

• Dist Acc Off: 44.2%
• Dist Att/Min: 13.28
• Dist Def: 46%
• KD%: .4% (1 KD out of 226 distance strikes)
• Control % Off: 3.9%
• Control % Def: 6.1%

We are not going to use Michael Chiesa’s previous three fights, being they are so far removed from this fight. We will focus on Holland’s statistical profile. One thing that stands out is his horrendous distance defense of 46%. The majority of that can be attributed to his war with Stephen Thompson, but it is concerning. As of late, Holland has improved his Control % Def and fights the vast majority of his fights at a distance. His distance defense concerns me, but Chiesa has zero knockouts in his UFC career and has recorded only 1 knockdown in 17 fights.

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Bottom Line

Holland should control this fight at a distance with little resistance from Chiesa.

Bets: Holland ML (-140) and Holland by submission (+500) Chiesa has 4 losses in the UFC by submission.