UFC 291 Poirier vs. Gaethje 2: Prelims Undercard Odds, Picks & Predictions

by Andrew Mintner |
Jul 28, 2023

We have another stacked UFC card. This card is mainly consisting of household names with a few prospects sprinkled in. The prelims are overshadowed by the insane main card but there is still some value and matchups worth looking at. Letâ€™s take a look at two matchups that stand out on paper. Letâ€™s dive in!!

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.

We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about a highly volatile sport.

Prelims: UFC 291 Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.

Glossary

Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
KD%: Knockdown percentage (knockdowns/distance strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The main key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!

Miranda Maverick (-280) vs Priscila Cachoeira (+235)

Miranda Maverick

Dist Acc Off: 42.5%
Dist Att/Min: 15.82
Dist Def: 62%
KD%: 0% (0 KDS out of 129 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 25.8%
Control % Def: 37.4%

Priscila Cachoeira

Dist Acc Off: 44.92%
Dist Att/Min: 14.68
Dist Def: 55%
KD%: 0.8% (1 KD out of 115 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 3.4%
Control % Def: 13.7%

At first glance, Maverick has an advantage defensively and is more active in the offensive control game. Maverickâ€™s control percentage defense would be concerning in another fight, but Cachoeira prefers to fight at a distance. Maverick does have a respectable 25.8% offensive control which gives her another avenue to win. Maverick should be able to grind this fight out to an easy decision victory.

Bet: Maverick to win by Decision (+150)

Derrick Lewis (+190) vs Marcos Rogerio De Lima (-225)

Marcos Rogerio De Lima

Dist Acc Off: 60.4%
Dist Att/Min: 22.15
Dist Def: 51%
KD%: 1.5% (2 KDs out of 133 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 25.2%
Control % Def: 13.1%

Derrick Lewis hasnâ€™t had a ton of fight time over his last several fights, so we couldnâ€™t build an advanced statistical profile for him. De Lima has two things that can benefit Lewis in this fight: he has a high activity rate and low distance defense. This plays right into Lewisâ€™s game plan of being a counterpuncher. De Lima does have elite accuracy at a distance and could provide a problem for Lewis if he connects enough times. However, I feel as if Lewis will connect with an overhand right and that will be all she wrote.

Bet: Lewis (+190) and Lewis Round 1 KO/TKO (+400)

More UFC 291 Odds & Picks

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or if you have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!!!

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