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UFC 291: Poirier vs Gaethje 2 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Salt Lake City, Utah, is the location for this weekend's UFC 291 card. Despite no belts being on the line, this card is stacked from top to bottom, featuring three ranked fights on the main card. 

There is no shortage of betting options for this one, and I'm taking it to the prop sheet. Here are my top three prop bets for UFC 291. 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 291: Poirier vs Gaethje 2 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions

Derrick Lewis (+190) vs. Marcos Rogerio De Lima (-225)

If you were wondering just how great this card is, we're getting 11th-ranked Derrick Lewis on the preliminary card. The American will look to snap his three-fight skid against another veteran, Marcos Rogerio De Lima.

Okay, someone's going to sleep in this one, and I think it's happening within the first five minutes. Starting with the Brazilian, he's 21-8-1 in his career, and 14 of his 21 wins have come via knockout. On the flip side, Lewis is a knockout machine, with 21 of his 26 professional victories coming by knockout. Also, seven of his 11 losses are by KO. If The Black Beast is unable to finish De Lima right away, the stamina edge will quickly shift, and we can look for him to pour it on Lewis. I don't think this fight goes past five minutes.

Bet: Fight Does Not Start the Second Round (-135 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Stephen Thompson (-150) vs. Michel Pereira (+130)

Just prior to the co-main event, we have a ranked Welterweight showdown between Stephen Thompson (#7) and Michel Pereira (#15). The oddsmakers have Thompson as a -150 betting favorite, while Pereira comes back at +130 to get his hand raised. Check out my full fight preview and best bet here.

In terms of props, I'm confident laying the juice and saying this fight goes the full 15 minutes. Pereira's last four fights have gone the distance, while four of Thompson's last five fights have gone to the judges' scorecards.

Aside from those trends, I think Wonderboy's kickboxing edge should be able to keep Pereira at bay for the majority of the fight. However, I think Pereira will eventually break through and secure some ground control time against Thompson. His takedown defense rate is just 64 percent. This fight going to the canvas will be great for us as it will chew up time on the clock. Ultimately, we should be in for more of a technical fight here rather than a banger. I think this one lasts until the final horn. 

Bet: Fight to Go the Distance (-175 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Dustin Poirier (-145) vs. Justin Gaethje (+125)

The main event features a highly-anticipated rematch between Dustin Poirier (#2) and Justin Gaethje (#3). The two fought back in 2018, and Poirier secured a knockout win 33 seconds into the fourth round. The Diamond is a -145 moneyline favorite, while Gaethje comes back at +125 to win the second bout.

I'm saying that this fight makes it to at least the start of the fourth round. Stamina will not be an issue here as both of these men are essentially main event fighters at this point in their respective careers. The only questions you have to ask are, "Will someone get caught, or will Poirier lock in a submission?" Both are great questions as each of these brawlers possess heavy hands, and Poirier attempts 1.2 submissions per 15 minutes. 

But, at the same time, Poirier and Gaethje have solid chins and should be able to take a beating. In terms of submission, Gaethje boasts a respectable 75 percent takedown defense rate and has only been taken down once in his last three fights. I don't think it's a lock, but I believe these two fighters will give the viewers their money's worth. Look for this main event to spill over into at least the fourth round. 

Bet: Fight Will Start the Fourth Round (+100 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

More UFC 291 Odds & Picks

Check out the rest of the UFC 291 Fight Card Odds>>

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