UFC 291 Poirier vs. Gaethje Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions

by Trent Conner |
Jul 28, 2023

Two of the best lightweights in the sport will take center stage on Saturday night. The UFC is in Salt Lake City, Utah, for a pay-per-view card headlined by Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje for the BMF belt. Alex Pereira also makes his light heavyweight debut against Jan Blachowicz in the co-main event. The early prelims start at 6:30 p.m. EDT, the prelims at 8 p.m., and the main card begins at 10 p.m. on ESPN+ PPV.

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2023 total: Down 10.74 units | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 219 Poirier vs Gaethje: Parlay Picks

Leg 1: Miranda Maverick Money Line (-280)

Miranda Maverick is on a quick turnaround this week when she takes on Priscila Cachoeira. She lost to Jasmine Jasudavicius at UFC 289 but has a much more favorable matchup. Cachoeira is primarily a kickboxer who tends to get into brawls. She lands 4.68 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 7.85 significant strikes per minute. She gets hit a lot, but that number is slightly skewed because of her debut bout against Valentina Shevchenko, in which she only landed two significant strikes to Shevchenko's 95.

Maverick averages 2.24 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and should be able to control Cachoeira on the mat for extended periods. Cachoeira has only defended 65 percent of takedowns in the UFC and has lost by submission twice in the UFC. Maverick has defeated six opponents by submission and has a good chance of securing another in this fight.

Leg 2: Michael Chiesa Money Line (+120)

Michael Chiesa has not fought since November 2021, when he lost to Sean Brady. He had a back injury that required him to take some time to get healthy. He is facing Kevin Holland in the opening fight on the main card. Holland is a slick striker but always has trouble staying off his back. Both men are long for the division, but Holland will have a six-inch reach advantage over Chiesa. It should not matter much due to Chiesa's wrestling. He averages 3.39 takedowns per 15 minutes and should be able to get Holland to the mat whenever he wants. He must watch out because Holland is dangerous from his back, which was proven when he knocked out Jacare Souza with elbows from his back. Holland is routinely taken down by opponents and often loses the fight when he has fewer takedowns than his opponent. Chiesa has the wrestling pedigree and needs to get going as quickly as possible to get reacclimated with the feeling of being in the cage.

Leg 3: Bobby Green Money Line (-380)

Tony Ferguson has slowed down tremendously. He lost his last five fights and looked less mobile than ever. He is fighting Bobby Green, known for his unorthodox striking style. Green lands 5.97 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 3.67 significant strikes per minute. He fights with his hands low and rolls with punches. He is also a quality wrestler but may want to stay away from the mat because Ferguson has the advantage in terms of grappling. The easiest way for Bobby Green to win this fight is to remain active and land a high volume of strikes. Ferguson has shown in recent bouts that he is tough as ever but does not have the speed to land the shots he is used to landing. He still has power, which he proved in the Michael Chandler fight when he wobbled him in the first round. Green must weather the storm early and stay at range for the best chance to win.

Total Parlay Odds: +277

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