UFC 291 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Stephen Thompson vs. Michel Pereira

by Trenton Pruitt |
Jul 27, 2023

The UFC hits the road this weekend, and Salt Lake City, Utah, is the location for UFC 291. It's another stacked card from top to bottom, featuring three ranked fights on the main card. All roads lead to a Lightweight showdown between #2 Dustin Poirier and #3 Justin Gaethje in the main event.

There's a hidden gem in the middle of the main card, and it's a Welterweight tilt between #7 Stephen Thompson and #15 Michel Pereira. Let's dive into each fighter's recent form, break down their tendencies, and lock in a best bet for this highly anticipated banger.

UFC 291: Stephen Thompson vs. Michel Pereira Odds, Picks & Predictions

Betting Profile: Stephen Thompson (17-6-1)

Last Five Fights (W/L/L/W/W)

Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson got back in the win column last time out, finishing Kevin Holland in the fourth round in December 2022. It was a high volume fight where Thompson out-struck Holland 163-119. The victory snapped a two-fight losing streak for the 40-year-old, who had dropped consecutive bouts to Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad, most recently.

Statistically, the American is averaging 4.20 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.04. In the takedown department, Thompson's landing just 0.27 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 41 percent clip. He enters this contest with a takedown defense rate of 64 percent. As for his MMA accolades, Wonderboy is a 5th-degree Black Belt in Kempo, 1st-degree Black Belt in Jujutsu, Black Belt in American Kickboxing, and Brown Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

Betting Profile: Michel Pereira (28-11-0, 2 NC)

Last Five Fights (W/W/W/W/W)

15th-ranked Michel Pereira comes into Saturday's fight riding a five-fight win streak. He'll look to make another big jump in the rankings when he takes on the veteran Stephen Thompson. The five recent wins were against (from oldest to most recent): Zelim Imadaev, Khaos Williams, Niko Price, Andre Fialho, and Santiago Ponzinibbio. The Brazilian out-struck Ponzinibbio 110-105 in a high-volume 15-minute bout in May of last year.

The high striking output shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone, as the 29-year-old boasts a rate of 5.09 significant strikes per minute. He's taking just 3.78 strikes per minute. In terms of grappling, the BJJ Black Belt is landing 1.58 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 55 percent clip. Pereira is defending an impressive 94 percent of opposing takedown attempts. It's also worth noting that he has a Black Belt in Karate on his resume.

Bottom Line

The oddsmakers are anticipating a tight fight in the Welterweight division on Saturday night as Stephen Thompson enters as just a -150 moneyline favorite. Michel Pereira comes back at +130 to get his hand raised. Interestingly, of the five main card bouts, this has just the fourth-tightest odds. So, the sportsbooks suggest we're in for a ton of intriguing matchups.

I'm going against the grain in this spot and riding with the underdog. Give me Pereira on the moneyline at +130 (via DraftKings Sportsbook). I hate to say it since he's a legend, but I think Thompson is on his way out of the UFC soon. While he bounced back and snapped a two-fight losing streak in December 2022, it was against Kevin Holland, who is just a pedestrian 3-4 in his last seven fights.

Wonderboy's days of fighting top contenders are over, and he's clearly slipping into the gatekeeper role. Pereira knows this, and he's trending upward exponentially. The Brazilian has the edge in grappling, and if he's able to get Thompson to the canvas, he'll win this one with relative ease. Thompson's 64 percent takedown defense rate would suggest that if Pereira is persistent with his wrestling efforts, then he'll eventually amass ground control time. Give me the younger, rising Pereira to pull off the slight upset.

More UFC 291 Odds & Picks

Pick: Michel Pereira Moneyline (+130 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

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