UFC 292 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Aljamain Sterling vs Sean O’Malley

UFC 292 gets underway this Saturday at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. This card features a ton of talent and is rounded out with two potentially great title fights.

In the main event, the bantamweight belt is on the line as Sean O’Malley gets the opportunity to live up to the hype against the proven Aljamain Sterling.

Below, I will walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this championship bout.

• Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos
• Ian Garry vs. Neil Magny
• Da'Mon Blackshear vs. Mario Bautista
• Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz
• Parlay Picks
• Prelims Undercard Bets

Odds courtesy of Circa Sportsbook

UFC 292 Odds, Picks & Predictions

Betting Profile: Aljamain Sterling (23-3 Overall / 15-3 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)

Even Sean O’Malley has joined the party, stating that Aljamain Sterling is the greatest 135-pounder UFC has seen. While that is an argument for another time and a good one at that, there is no denying that he is currently riding the greatest stretch of success in the history of the bantamweights.

Sterling has won each of his past nine fights, knocking off some absolute killers along the way as he has beaten the likes of Henry Cejudo, TJ Dillashaw, Petr Yan (2x), and Cory Sandhagen. With that said, that 9-0 stretch has not been as spotless as it appears, with two split-decision victories and a DQ victory over that span.

That DQ victory granted him the belt in 2021, and that was a fight in which Yan was coasting to an easy victory before a dumb-founding knee to a grounded opponent. I think it’s safe to say that losing the strap that way altered Yan completely, with the then-undefeated fighter going on to lose three of his next four fights.

Betting Profile: Sean O’Malley (16-1 Overall / 9-1 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-NC-W)

One of those aforementioned Yan losses came against O’Malley, who has been nearly spotless since turning professional. His lone professional loss came against Marlon Vera, although that is an asterisk loss.

O’Malley suffered a freak injury in that fight when he went to step back on his foot in the first round, which caused him to fall in pain and allow Vera to secure top mound and wail on an injured opponent until Herb Dean stopped the fight. So, besides a freak injury, nobody has stopped O’Malley as a professional mixed martial artist (he also has a No Contest against Pedro Munhoz due to an inadvertent eye poke).

His highlight reel knockouts are what put him on the radar among both casual MMA fans and the die-hards that live and breathe with every punch, which has coincidentally created a dichotomy among how people view him. We see this a lot when a fighter becomes immensely popular at a very fast rate, which for some reason, causes a lot of those who follow the sport intently to dislike a fighter due to his/her popularity among those who only tune in for title fights on PPV nights.

Bottom Line

While it is unfortunate many view the sport that way, those in opposition of O’Malley will have some great points this week. Sterling is the better mixed martial artist – he is more well-rounded, and if his wrestling is on point, O’Malley could be wearing him like a backpack for 25 straight minutes.

On the flip side, O’Malley’s highlight reel knockouts have mistakenly led some people to believe he is just a “one-trick pony”. That is absolutely not the case, but his grappling has just not been demonstrated very often in the UFC since he is usually picking people apart effortlessly on the feet.

Is he on Sterling’s level of grappling/wrestling? Absolutely not, but he can surely hang in there.

That brings us to the striking, in which O’Malley has the clear advantage. There are numerous avenues to victory for O’Malley, whether it is via knockout, a counter-submission, or even dealing more damage, while Sterling’s grappling falls short in terms of importance in the judge’s eyes.

This fight is closer to 50/50 than these odds indicate, and I will gladly back O’Malley north of 2/1.

Best Bet: Sean O’Malley ML (+215 via Circa)

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.