UFC 292 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Mario Bautista

The UFC heads to Boston on Saturday as two belts are on the line at UFC 292. First, Zhang Weili (C) looks to defend her Women's Strawweight title against fifth-ranked Amanda Lemos in the co-main event. All roads lead to a main event clash where second-ranked Sean O'Malley gets his first title shot against reigning champion Aljamain Sterling (C). The main event takes place in the 135-pound Bantamweight division. 

There are a ton of great fights on the docket, including a main-event showdown in the Bantamweight division between Da'Mon Blackshear and Mario Bautista. Blackshear will step in on short notice for Cody Garbrandt, who was scratched due to an undisclosed injury. Let's dive into this Bantamweight tilt and lock in a best bet!

• Aljamain Sterling vs Sean O’Malley
• Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos
• Ian Garry vs. Neil Magny
• Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz
• Parlay Picks
• Prelims Undercard Bets

UFC 292 Picks & Predictions: Da'Mon Blackshear vs. Mario Bautista

Betting Profile: Da'Mon Blackshear (14-5-1) 

• Last Four Fights (WWLL)

Da'Mon Blackshear takes this fight on short notice and he'll be looking for his third consecutive victory in the UFC. "The Monster" just turned 29, and believe it or not, this will already be his second fight at age 29. Blackshear fought last weekend and submitted Jose Johnson via the Twister, which was just the third Twister in UFC history. If he pulls off the upset here, it'll be the shortest span in which a UFC fighter has collected two wins (seven days). Khamzat Chimaev owns the current record of 10 days.

Stylistically, Blackshear is looking to get people out of the octagon before it goes to the judges' scorecards. Both of his recent wins came prior to the 10-minute mark, adding a second-round knockout against Luan Lacerda prior to the Johnson submission. The American-born brawler is landing 3.68 significant strikes per minute while absorbing an equal 3.68. As for his ground game, Blackshear is averaging 1.76 successful takedowns per 15 minutes and landing at a 29% clip. His takedown defense rate is 54% and he's averaging 1.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes. 

Betting Profile: Mario Bautista (12-2-0) 

• Last Five Fights (WWWWL)

Mario Bautista will put his four-fight win streak on the line Saturday. The American has been making quick work of his competition recently, collecting three first-round submissions in his last three outings. The fourth victory was a unanimous decision over Jay Perrin back in February 2022. His recent wins, starting most recently, were: Guido Cannetti (Rear Naked Choke), Benito Lopez (Triangle Armbar), and Brian Kelleher (Rear Naked Choke).

It's clear that Bautista is looking for finishes, and he's typically doing it in flashy ways. The 30-year-old boasts three career Performance of the Night bonuses. He's excellent in the grappling department, racking up 2.91 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 68% success rate. He's defending 62% of opposing attempts and dishing out 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes. In terms of his striking, Bautista is landing an inflated 5.33 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.73 strikes. 

Bottom Line

Considering this is a short-notice fight, there aren't a ton of betting options available at the moment. FanDuel Sportsbook only has the moneyline available, and they see Mario Bautista as a sizable -225 favorite. Da'Mon Blackshear comes in at +180 to make history, where he'd be the first fighter to win two fights in a seven-day span. 

I hate to do it, but I have to lay the juice here and fade Blackshear. I wanted to try and find an angle to back him, but I simply don't know if his takedown defense will hold up against a veteran wrestler like Bautista. Blackshear has been taken down five times in his recent four fights, which equates to just a 54% defense rate.

That's not a stat that bodes well considering the success that Bautista has had on the canvas recently. Once he gets your back, it's over. Considering Bautista was training for a big-time wrestler in Cody Garbrandt, this should theoretically make him more confident in the grappling phase of the fight against a lesser-polished Blackshear. Look for Bautista to rack up enough ground control to win by decision, or maybe even slip in a submission and collect his fourth straight win by sub. 

Pick: Mario Bautista Moneyline (-225 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

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