UFC 292 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Ian Garry vs. Neil Magny
Ian Garry vs. Neil Magny is an incredibly intriguing matchup. Garry has been saying for several weeks now he is carrying this card, which is borderline laughable, considering there are two title fights that are both stylistically interesting and showcase phenomenal fighters.
Nonetheless, he will face off against easily his most difficult adversary, Neil Magny. Magny has fought an astounding 30 UFC Fights (21-9). Not only is there an experience factor, but he will be the longer fighter with a considerable reach advantage. This will aid him in grappling exchanges, where he will try to take this fight.
MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.
We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.
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Ian Garry vs. Neil Magny: UFC 292 Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (knockdowns/distance strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!
Ian Garry (-520) vs. Neil Magny (+390)
Ian Garry
- Dist Acc Off: 54.7%
- Dist Att/Min: 13.75
- Dist Def: 55%
- KD%: .6% (4 KDs out of 325 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 4.3%
- Control % Def: 12.7%
Neil Magny
- Dist Acc Off: 35.3%
- Dist Att/Min: 12.81
- Dist Def: 44%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 162 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 20.6%
- Control % Def: 30.3%
Magny has been horrendous at a distance. His 44% distance defense is alarming, considering that the UFC average is 63%. Garry, who has been noted for his finishes, doesn’t possess that real one-punch power the narrative is pushing. Both fighters will fight at a similar pace.
The one thing Garry will have to overcome is a six-inch reach disadvantage. Magny knows that if he wants to win this fight, he will have to get Garry to the ground.
-520 for Garry is an absurd amount of juice to lay, and I cannot stomach that amount for a fighter who is moving drastically up in class against a savvy veteran.
Bottom Line
The line is way too wide, and there is value in Magny as the more experienced fighter.
Bet: Magny ML (+390)
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!