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UFC 292 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz

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The UFC heads to Boston on Saturday as two belts are on the line at UFC 292. First, Zhang Weili (C) looks to defend her Women's Strawweight title against fifth-ranked Amanda Lemos in the co-main event. All roads lead to a main-event clash where second-ranked Sean O'Malley gets his first title shot against reigning champion Aljamain Sterling (C). The main event takes place in the 135-pound Bantamweight division. 

There are a ton of great fights on the docket, including the main event opener between sixth-ranked Marlon Vera and 10th-ranked Pedro Munhoz. Let's dive into this Bantamweight tilt and lock in a best bet!

UFC 292 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Marlon Vera (20-8-1) 

Last Five Fights (L-W-W-W-W)

Marlon "Chito" Vera saw his four-fight win streak snapped last time he made the walk, losing via split decision to Cory Sandhagen in March. The 30-year-old will be looking to get back in the win column as he attempts to make a run at the elusive Bantamweight title. His previous four wins were two knockouts (Dominick Cruz and Frankie Edgar) and two unanimous decisions (Rob Font and Davey Grant). Vera was awarded Performance of the Night bonuses in the two knockouts.

Stylistically, we know Chito likes to start slow before eventually picking his opponents apart. In terms of his striking numbers, Vera is landing 4.09 significant strikes per minute while absorbing an inflated 5.02 strikes. He’s averaging just 0.61 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing at a 40% success rate. He's also defending 69% of opposing attempts and attempting 1.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes. It's worth noting he boasts a Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. 

Betting Profile: Pedro Munhoz (20-7-0, 2 NC) 

Last Five Fights (W-Nc-L-L-W)

Pedro Munhoz has had a rocky run of fights over his last four outings, suffering two losses while collecting a no-contest against Sean O'Malley in July 2022. However, the Brazilian bounced back in his last fight, defeating Chris Gutierrez via unanimous decision. Munhoz was actually out-struck 77-60 but landed a knockdown in the winning effort. Over his last three official fights, Munhoz hasn't out-struck a single opponent. 

That translates to the stat sheet as well, considering Munhoz is landing 5.30 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.90 strikes. The BJJ Black Belt isn't too active in terms of his grappling, considering he's logging just 0.51 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 20% clip. However, he's a tough customer to get on the canvas as he boasts an 81% takedown defense rate. 

Bottom Line

The oddsmakers don't fancy an upset (in terms of rankings) Saturday night in this main card opener as they see sixth-ranked Marlon Vera as a -198 moneyline favorite. 10th-ranked Pedro Munhoz comes back at +164 to get his hand raised. 

I have to agree with the oddsmakers in saying Vera is the more skilled fighter. I think he wins. However, I can't lay this type of juice. Instead, I'll add an "extra leg" and say Chito gets it done by decision at –105.

This is such an interesting spot. Vera is typically a fighter who takes a couple of rounds to get warmed up and start working his boxing. However, he’ll have to be more aggressive since he hasn't fought less than five rounds in three straight fights. That shouldn't be much of an issue, considering Munhoz has been out-struck in his last three fights. 

It's also worth noting that Munhoz's last six fights (barring the O'Malley no-contest) have all gone to the judges' scorecards. He has yet to be knocked out or submitted in 19 career UFC fights. I'm expecting this tilt to see the final horn, and I like for Vera to get his hand raised. 

Bet: Marlon Vera To Win By Decision (-105)

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