UFC 292 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos
Zhang Weili faces off against Amanda Lemos for the Women’s Strawweight Championship. Lemos is arguably Weili’s toughest opponent since losing back-to-back fights to Rose Namajunas. Both fighters have had nine UFC fights with similar results but have some glaring differences. This fight could arguably be the fight of the night. Let’s dive in!
MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.
We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.
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Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos: UFC 292 Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (knockdowns/distance strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!
Zhang Weili (-310) vs. Amanda Lemos (+250)
Zhang Weili
- Dist Acc Off: 41.8%
- Dist Att/Min: 14.03
- Dist Def: 58%
- KD%: .2% (2 KDs out of 414 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 16.4%
- Control % Def: 11.1%
Amanda Lemos
- Dist Acc Off: 51.5%
- Dist Att/Min: 9.94
- Dist Def: 57%
- KD%: 1.8% (7 KDs out of 200 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 17.8%
- Control % Def: 22.2%
At first glance, two things stand out: Weili fights at a considerably higher pace, and Lemos carries exponentially more power in her strikes. Lemos has three times as many knockdowns in half as many landed distance strikes. That is a glaring outlier.
Another interesting tidbit is both fighters have nine UFC fights. Weili has fought 71 minutes at a distance compared to Lemos, who has fought 39 minutes at a distance. Both fighters have finished a similar amount of fights in a similar fashion. Weili obviously has the championship experience, but I cannot look past the vast power difference.
Bottom Line
Lemos will land the more noteworthy strikes and pull off the upset.
Bets: Amanda Lemos ML (+250) | Amanda Lemos by Finish (+330)
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!