UFC 292 Sterling vs. O’Malley Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions

The UFC is on the road for a multi-title fight pay-per-view event in the TD Garden in Boston. Zhang Weili puts her strap on the line against Amanda Lemos in the strawweight division, and Aljamain Sterling attempts to defend his belt for the fourth time against Sean O'Malley. Several veterans are scattered throughout the card, which should make it an exciting night of fights. The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. EDT, the prelims at 8 p.m., and the main card at 10 p.m. on ESPN+.

Follow my Twitter here for more picks and predictions on the day of the fights.

• Aljamain Sterling vs Sean O’Malley
• Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos
• Ian Garry vs. Neil Magny
• Da'Mon Blackshear vs. Mario Bautista
• Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz
• Prelims Undercard Bets

UFC 292 Sterling vs O'Malley: Parlay Picks

2023 total: Down 8.51 units | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Leg 1: Gregory Rodrigues Money Line (-355)

Denis Tiuliulin is the opponent for Gregory "Robocop" Rodrigues on Saturday night. It is a favorable matchup for Rodrigues. He lands 6.09 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy and absorbs 5.82 significant strikes per minute. Tiuliulin lands 5.35 significant strikes at 42% accuracy and absorbs 6.07 significant strikes per minute. They land and absorb similar amounts of strikes, but Rodrigues is far more accurate. Rodrigues also has a strong ground game. He lands 2.20 takedowns per three rounds, and Tiuliulin has defended 72% of takedowns in his career. Tiuliulin has also been submitted four times in his career and twice in the UFC. Rodrigues can choose where this fight takes place and has the advantage in both.

Leg 2: Marlon Vera Money Line (-198)

Marlon "Chito" Vera lost his last fight against Cory Sandhagen, which would have put him into title consideration. Now he must return to the drawing board and find a win to start his streak back to the top. He is facing Pedro Munhoz, currently ranked tenth in the bantamweight rankings. Munhoz is a boxer that fights behind his jab with solid wrestling and powerful kicks. Vera is a slow-starting striker who lands damaging elbows and knees with nasty combinations. He will have a five-inch reach advantage over Munhoz, which should help him stay at range and away from Munhoz's power shots. Vera also has devastating kicks, which he will throw up the middle if Munhoz does not move his head off center. Munhoz is 36 years old and slowing in a division where speed kills. Vera is in a desperate spot coming in after a loss, which is terrible news for Munhoz.

Leg 3: Sean O'Malley Money Line (+210)

Sean O'Malley is much too big of an underdog in this title fight. Aljamain Sterling is a talented wrestler and fighter, but he may be underestimating the wrestling of O'Malley. Petr Yan landed six of 13 takedowns against O'Malley and could not control him on the mat. He managed to find his way to his feet and only absorbed six significant strikes while on the ground in that fight. He did a tremendous job of limiting damage and returning to his feet. Many think Yan was robbed in this bout but fail to recognize that O'Malley defended well when taken down. O'Malley landed much more damaging strikes when standing, which shows his striking skills. He lands 7.43 significant strikes per minute at 60% accuracy and absorbs 3.54 significant strikes. Sterling lands 4.78 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy and absorbs 2.37 significant strikes. O'Malley lands way more than Sterling and is accurate.

If O'Malley can stop Sterling from controlling the fight on the mat, he can easily win a striking match. Sterling is a solid striker but shines when he takes his opponent's back. O'Malley must avoid this position at all costs, as Sterling can end the fight with ease from there. This bout is much closer than the odds suggest, which makes O'Malley a value parlay leg.

Total Parlay Odds: +497

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