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UFC 292 Sterling vs. O’Malley: Prelims Undercard Odds, Picks & Predictions

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UFC 292 will have a lot to live up to after UFC 291, which is arguably the best card of the year so far. The main card is stacked with a solid mix of prospects, veterans, and intriguing stylistic matchups. The prelims do present us with some value that we can take advantage of. Let’s dive in!!!

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.

We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about a highly volatile sport.

Prelims: UFC 292 Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.

Glossary

  • Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
  • Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
  • Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
  • Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
  • Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
  • KD%: Knockdown percentage (knockdowns/distance strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
  • Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
  • Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
  • Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!

Gregory Rodrigues (-355) vs Denis Tiuliulin (+280)

Gregory Rodrigues

  • Dist Acc Off: 42.9%
  • Dist Att/Min: 16.52
  • Dist Def: 49%
  • KD%: .9% (4 KDs out of 190 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 19.2%
  • Control % Def: 5.8%

Denis Tiuliulin

  • Dist Acc Off: 38.2%
  • Dist Att/Min: 17.26
  • Dist Def: 45%
  • KD%: .8% (2 KDs out of 90 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 4.8%
  • Control % Def: 30.1%

These two fighters fight at an above-average pace and have horrendous distance defense. This is going to set up a short night for one of them. Rodrigues has twice as much distance time as Tiuliulin. Another part that stands out to me is Tiuliulin has abysmal control % defense. Now I do not foresee this fight going near the ground until one of these fighters gets knocked down. I lean toward Rodrigues as he has shown more of a striking acumen over more fights.

Bet: Rodrigues by Round 1 KO/TKO (+150)

Austin Hubbard (-175) vs Kurt Holobaugh (+145)

Austin Hubbard 

  • Dist Acc Off: 46.9%
  • Dist Att/Min: 12.61
  • Dist Def: 61%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 161 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 15.8%
  • Control % Def: 17.6%

Kurt Holobaugh hasn’t fought in the UFC in over 4 years so we were not able to build an advanced statistics profile for him. He did fight twice in the last two years in XFC with two KOs/TKOS in two fights. His UFC record is an uninspiring 0-5-1. Also, Holobaugh to my research fights out of his own gym with no other fighters listed via Tapology. Hubbard has a pretty standard profile for a UFC fighter. He boasts slightly above-average accuracy and has formidable distance defense. Hubbard has fought twice in other organizations since his last UFC fight and has won two unanimous decisions. Hubbard fights out of Elevation Fight Team, which has a plethora of talented fighters.

Bet: Austin Hubbard (-175) and Austin Hubbard by decision (+140)

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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