UFC 293 Adesanya vs. Strickland: Prelims Undercard Odds, Picks & Predictions
UFC 293 is considered to be a top-heavy card that is stacked with fan-favorite fighters and several up-and-coming prospects.
Most people view this as a lackluster card from top to bottom, but those sometimes end up being PPV-of-the-year candidates. Most people will tune in to see if Sean Strickland can shock the world, but there is incredible value in the undercard.
Let’s look at the often-overlooked prelims.
UFC 293 Prelims Prop Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Let’s look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (knockdowns/distance strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter’s last three fights. This indicates a fighter’s form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let’s look at this compelling matchup!
Jamie Mullarkey (-265) vs. John Makdessi (+215)
Jamie Mullarkey
- Dist Acc Off: 43.7%
- Dist Att/Min: 11.25
- Dist Def: 59%
- KD%: .7% (2 KDs out of 279 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: .7%
- Control % Def: 24.5%
John Makdessi
- Dist Acc Off: 47.9%
- Dist Att/Min: 11.47
- Dist Def: 65%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 319 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 1.3%
- Control % Def: 2.5%
Both fighters are extremely similar across the board. They fight at the same pace, with similar accuracies and similar distance defense. The only noticeable difference is Jamie Mullarkey has a concerning significant control % defense of 24.5%. Still, John Makdessi has no interest in being in control positions; he wants to fight at a distance.
Mullarkey has two key edges: a six-inch reach advantage and being nine years younger. One concern is that Mullarkey is coming off a KO/TKO loss in June. This is usually not enough time to recover from such a loss.
Makdessi is the more experienced UFC fighter, and Mullarkey is on a quick turnaround from a KO a little over three months ago.
Bet: John Makdessi (+215)
Charles Radtke (-325) vs. Blood Diamond (+260)
Charles Radtke is making his UFC debut. He has a professional record of 7-3 with three KOs/TKOs, two submissions and two decisions. He has fought in the Bellator and Cage Fury Fighting Championships. He won the CFFC Welterweight championship in his last fight via first-round RNC. Radtke fights out of MMA Masters, home to UFC superstars Colby Covington and Ilia Topuria.
Blood Diamond has two UFC fights, and both were underwhelming, to say the least. The telling statistic is that he has a 70.5% defensive control metric. This is abysmal. Normally, I would be concerned with anything above 25%. 70.5% gives me no confidence that he has a legitimate path to victory.
Radtke will get this fight to the ground, where it will stay.
Bet: Charles Radtke (-325)
More UFC 293 Coverage:
- Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland
- Tai Tuivasa vs. Alexander Volkov
- Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane
- Tyson Pedro vs. Anton Turkalj
- Manel Kape vs. Felipe dos Santos
- UFC 293 Adesanya vs. Strickland Parlay Picks
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!